No one really knows. Some said prices would go back to normal by april, some said june, some are now saying Q4 2021, others say that by mid 2022 things will get better.
 
It's all guesswork.

That's not quite it... if the crypto market falls enough, GPU mining would be less profitable, but my understanding is that the problem is a little more extensive than crypto mining.  For one thing, we're in a worldwide semiconductor shortage due to a huge host of market conditions triggered by the pandemic.  Even a lot of automobile manufacturers are being held back by a shortage of the electronics for cars, it's that bad.  Currently, even TSMC--easily the most important chip fab for the good stuff we all want--is being handicapped by a shortage of substrate.  Apparently, new substrate suppliers will be online Q1 of next year, which is also around the time Intel launches their discrete graphics card, bringing a third competitor to the game.  If Etherium has gone to proof of stake by then (most likely will, which will greatly reduce mining potential), there's a good chance we'll see the graphics card market normalize, now with 3 competitors :)

I don't actually know anything about anything, but I've stolen this opinion from Tom at Moore's Law is Dead on youtube, who's really ahead of the trends in hardware and seems to know his stuff.

Crypto is not the biggest problem. Supply is lacking bad. In 21Q4b-22Q1 should open new silicon factories in the US. So until then, it's just a waiting game.

I'll keep my fingers crossed, that this situation will hopefully end this year.

From what I read and understand, 2022 at best, as this is not a demand problem (aka mining) but more of a supply one. The silicon needed for chips (of all kinds, not just GPU) is scarce these past 2 years due to Covid and other China-related stuff (I hate politics, so I will just not elaborate more).

You sound pretty certain about Bitcoin’s future. Also, Bitcoin is not mined with GPUs, so what are you really talking about?

Basically the silicon shortage is projected out for at least a year.
Even if the foundries put up new buildings TODAY, it'd probably be 12-18 months before those facilities would be turning out product.
And, even then, the cryptominers are still going to be looking for best-bang-for-buck in GPUs as long as they can.

So we're probably looking at late 2022 to mid 2023.

Yes, it MAJORLY bites crank.

But there's jack-squat anyone can realistically do about it.

Until supply increases really... Mining isn't all of the issue. Other industries like cars, etc are also facing major shortages which have nothing to do with mining. Mining does make it extra hard on GPUs, but the issue would still be present without it - just less pronounced.

Yeah it's ether not btc

It's probably more on the demand side  than supply at this point I'd wager... we do put a lot more chips in... well, everything. From phones to  cars to fridges and toasters. I'm sure 'rona had an effect but not THIS long lasting, the factories werent shut down for that long.

It's not about demand. The supply chain is stuck so bad. Even before covid happened there was a problem already.

early 2022 is way to early, if crypto is on the rise, i dont see a great future.

GingerPopper
Imo prices aren't going down to msrp at least until the next gen cards drop, of course the prices will drop over the course of the year but I don't think the price drops will be as drastic as many think.

I am with ginger on this one. And also MSRP of the new cards will be a lot more than what MSRP used to be. Things have changed permanently…

jashaun1
When do you think the GPU demand will decrease and there will be enough supply to go around? I was talking to some people saying that the next halving(Crypto) will be when the market returns to normal. What do you think?

We can dream. But it's doubtful, mining is just a small part of a (by now) much larger problem industry-wide, the pandemic, and finally I think the "cumulative effect" of a LOT of consumers needing to upgrade after already having put it off previous years due to the shortages that already existed even back then, before the pandemic.

I really wish it will change, my fear is that manufacturers, distributors, retailers, etc will see this market as an opportunity to always make money selling items at 3 or 4 times the msrp. It that is the case, maybe gpu demand goes down just because it is unsustainable to pay those prices