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Hot!Estimate your 3080 Ti via graph!

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danpeg
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2021/06/24 13:14:46 (permalink)
Attached is a graph of drops for various 3080 Ti cards.
Update 7-22-2021: Added dashed lines of the same color to show the previous regression so you can see the action from the latest drop. Let me know if you think its a good addition. Good action on 3959, you can see the slope steepen a lot!
 
 
Notes: First data point for 3967 not included in regression line as it appears to be an outlier.
post edited by danpeg - 2021/07/22 15:54:26

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    codebluetoo
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    Re: Estimate your 3080 Ti via graph! 2021/06/24 13:29:03 (permalink)
    at 8:14, this makes me want to cry <insert tears>...  LOL!

      
     
      
     
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    #2
    kram36
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    Re: Estimate your 3080 Ti via graph! 2021/06/24 13:35:44 (permalink)
    codebluetoo
    at 8:14, this makes me want to cry <insert tears>...  LOL!


    We know at the least 37 emails to purchase were sent out in the last 5 days on the 3080 Ti FTW3. So looking at your position in the list, 3 to 4 weeks for you to get an email to purchase, if EVGA keeps up that pace.

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    #3
    bigtoes18
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    Re: Estimate your 3080 Ti via graph! 2021/06/24 13:37:32 (permalink)
    Very nice work!
    #4
    AlexP11223
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    Re: Estimate your 3080 Ti via graph! 2021/06/24 13:58:48 (permalink)
    Graph for EU:
     

    #5
    Erikgresch
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    Re: Estimate your 3080 Ti via graph! 2021/06/24 14:12:55 (permalink)
    Ummm doubt it's going to take six months for it to go 20 minutes up in the queue.
    #6
    vinnychan
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    Re: Estimate your 3080 Ti via graph! 2021/06/24 14:26:57 (permalink)
    Ouch.. I got in at 8:34am PT..
     
    Was unable to get in all the way up until 8AM at which point I gave up. Screen to click the notify button would show up but I was somehow logged out and couldn't log back in between 6am - 8am PT. Decided to check again at 8:30AM and was finally able to do it.
    #7
    tyranus7
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    Re: Estimate your 3080 Ti via graph! 2021/06/24 21:57:19 (permalink)
    I'd invert the axis. Make it so the X axis is the "independent variable" which in this case is the costumer timestamp

    Desktop: | Gigabyte Z490 Vision-G | Intel Core i9 10850K | GPU: Pending | 16 GB RAM DDR4@4400 MHz CL18 | 1 TB NVMe + 10 TB HDD | Intel 2.5 Gbps Ethernet | 1080p @144Hz | EVGA 750W Supernova P2 |
     
    12G-P5-3967-KR     6/3/2021 7:48:19 AM PT    No
    12G-P5-3968-KR     6/3/2021 7:51:30 AM PT    No
    12G-P5-3953-KR     6/30/2021 6:30:34 AM PT   No

     
     
    #8
    criskoe
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    Re: Estimate your 3080 Ti via graph! 2021/06/24 22:29:21 (permalink)
    Definitely not trying to mock your enthusiasm and will to spend the time to do this. Good for you. But when I look at the graphs all I see is this... LOL .
    post edited by criskoe - 2021/06/24 22:35:21
    #9
    danpeg
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    Re: Estimate your 3080 Ti via graph! 2021/06/26 09:23:47 (permalink)
    Graph update with more data on 3967 and added 3958.
    #10
    Cbreezy1101
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    Re: Estimate your 3080 Ti via graph! 2021/06/26 09:50:47 (permalink)
    This is pretty dope! I got in at 7:58 and I honestly wouldn’t be shocked if it was October when I got my card…
    #11
    phased-in
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    Re: Estimate your 3080 Ti via graph! 2021/06/26 12:49:23 (permalink)
    Hmm, I have a couple of hours to go. See you guys at Christmas time.
    post edited by phased-in - 2021/06/26 12:56:59

    10900k @5.1 | 3080ti FE | Asus ROG Maximus XII Formula | G.Skill Trident Z DDR4-3600 32gb | 2TB 970 Evo Plus M.2 | Noctua NH-D15S | Seasonic PX-850 | Cooler Master H500 with two extra NF-A14 fans on top | My Elite Referral code
    #12
    jlantz5
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    Re: Estimate your 3080 Ti via graph! 2021/06/26 13:37:49 (permalink)
    guess i'm never getting one :(
    #13
    danpeg
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    Re: Estimate your 3080 Ti via graph! 2021/06/29 18:23:44 (permalink)
    Edit 6-29-2021: More movement on 3967. Added 3969 to the graph.
    #14
    danpeg
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    Re: Estimate your 3080 Ti via graph! 2021/07/06 19:09:13 (permalink)
    Update 7-6-2021: Of the ones I am tracking, only 3967 advanced. Lowered the slope though. I hear on the forums though that there will be a small drop later this week and more next week. Lets hope the pace picks up instead of slowing down.
    #15
    Extermicide
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    Re: Estimate your 3080 Ti via graph! 2021/07/06 19:33:03 (permalink)
    I got in at 08:06.      Was kinda hoping to see this card by August - but loosing hope for that.
    #16
    danpeg
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    Re: Estimate your 3080 Ti via graph! 2021/07/07 09:09:46 (permalink)
    Extermicide
    I got in at 08:06.      Was kinda hoping to see this card by August - but loosing hope for that.


    I'm after you at 8:12. Lets hope things speed up. TSMC is building a new plant and so is INTEL. Intel will not help NVIDIA directly but may give TSMC even more allotted chip manufacturing for NVIDIA. I would like mine to speed up to before Christmas but right now it looks like January.
    #17
    danpeg
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    Re: Estimate your 3080 Ti via graph! 2021/07/09 08:44:43 (permalink)
    Update 7-9-2021: Another small bump for FTW3 Ultra. XC3 Ultra HC also added to the graph. Its pretty flat though. Queue time for this on is on the right.
    #18
    Rcrist90
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    Re: Estimate your 3080 Ti via graph! 2021/07/09 12:26:36 (permalink)
    So you guys are going to hate me, but I managed a 3080 EVGA black ultra on the Newegg shuffle, I also won the newegg shuffle a month or so back for an asrock 6800xt and an asrock mobo, good deal. So I got that card too. I get pings from the Falcodrin Discord for certain GPUs and got a ping and it was another ****ing amazon one, either scams or scalpers usually. Got annoyed and nearly turned off the nonstop pings, but... I took a chance and clicked faster than I ever had in my life. After just 4 clicks I had bought a GPU, I had no idea what it was or how much it cost, so with great apprehension I looked and... BAM!!! EVGA 3080TI FTW Ultra! $1400!! Could not believe it. Wasn't a scam, wasn't a scalper. And somehow I managed to beat the bots. The discord server was full of "Ihateu" and "gratz, man!" Long story short, anyone want to buy an evga 3080 black ultra? And/or a 6800xt??? Also, word to the wise, if you think that 10ish more fps is worth that extra money, then sure, get the Ti. But if you don't even have a 4k120 monitor/TV, don't bother. The 3080 is far more than enough to run 4k60, except for Cyberpunk... lol. But if you do have 4k120hz display, I promise you, you won't notice a difference between 100fps and 110 fps, but you will notice the missing $500ish more you spent on a Ti vs the standard 3080. Hell, if you have a trumotion AND motionpro TV like I do, 60fps with both of those turned on looks so much better than a rock-solid 120fps. Motionpro comprehensively destroys any motion blur. **** motion blur. The catch is input lag :/ You get used to it though. So it's best for more story-based games than competitive games. 


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    #19
    jaro_irl
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    Re: Estimate your 3080 Ti via graph! 2021/07/14 03:52:13 (permalink)
    Very useful, thank you :)
    #20
    danpeg
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    Re: Estimate your 3080 Ti via graph! 2021/07/14 07:37:14 (permalink)
    Update 7-14-2021: A few more drops. Added 3968 also.
    #21
    danpeg
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    Re: Estimate your 3080 Ti via graph! 2021/07/15 08:15:25 (permalink)
    Update 7-14-2021 evening. More drops showed up.
    #22
    Jstandaert
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    Re: Estimate your 3080 Ti via graph! 2021/07/15 08:23:31 (permalink)
    I have been a network engineer for almost 15 years and it STILL TAKES ME WAY TO LONG TO FIGURE OUT WHAT THE GRAPH IS TELLING ME. I honestly only figured it out because I have the Kram lists as a reference. dream big kids, I am a total moron and still got a great job  

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    #23
    faux123
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    Re: Estimate your 3080 Ti via graph! 2021/07/15 19:37:35 (permalink)
    subbed for updates
    #24
    danpeg
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    Re: Estimate your 3080 Ti via graph! 2021/07/15 22:51:23 (permalink)
    Update 7-15-2021. Big drops making some jumps in the graph. Lets hope these slopes keep getting steeper!
    #25
    Jstandaert
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    Re: Estimate your 3080 Ti via graph! 2021/07/16 08:39:19 (permalink)
    danpeg
    Update 7-15-2021. Big drops making some jumps in the graph. Lets hope these slopes keep getting steeper!


    you have a typo on the time stamps. it goes 10am to 910am. top right corner 

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    #26
    rzelek506
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    Re: Estimate your 3080 Ti via graph! 2021/07/16 09:01:42 (permalink)
    I like how  the 3969 graph went from worst to best after just one day..
     
    FYI, the EVGA server was primarily down between 7:30am-7:40am and only a very few people were able to sign up during that time window. Most of the folks either joined between 7:20am-7:30am or after 7:40am
    So it's not really fair to show linear movement between 7:30am-7:40am.
    My recommendation would be to remove that row completely from the graph so that it would go 7:20am, 7:40am, 7:50am and so on..
    Then you could put a small note in your original post indicating that the server was primarily down during that 10min window and only a very few people were able to join then.
    #27
    danpeg
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    Re: Estimate your 3080 Ti via graph! 2021/07/16 09:27:24 (permalink)
    rzelek506
    I like how  the 3969 graph went from worst to best after just one day..
     
    FYI, the EVGA server was primarily down between 7:30am-7:40am and only a very few people were able to sign up during that time window. Most of the folks either joined between 7:20am-7:30am or after 7:40am
    So it's not really fair to show linear movement between 7:30am-7:40am.
    My recommendation would be to remove that row completely from the graph so that it would go 7:20am, 7:40am, 7:50am and so on..
    Then you could put a small note in your original post indicating that the server was primarily down during that 10min window and only a very few people were able to join then.


    Yes, both Hydro Copper configurations have the steeper slopes. I suspect this configuration is not as popular or at least its the last on everyone signed up for. So when it does advance, it jumps.
     
    I do like your suggestion but what I was planning on doing is that if there is a significant change in the slope at any time due to server status change or even if there is a change in rate that EVGA can produce these or any other unknown influence, that I would start a new regression line. I do appreciate you guys looking at my chart and commenting.
    #28
    danpeg
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    Re: Estimate your 3080 Ti via graph! 2021/07/16 19:25:42 (permalink)
    Update 7-16-2021. Drops keep coming. Keep it up EVGA team.
    #29
    danpeg
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    Re: Estimate your 3080 Ti via graph! 2021/07/19 19:20:31 (permalink)
    Update 7-19-2021. Drop on 3958 and an adjustment to 3959. 3958 was matching 3968 but it seems to be picking up steam. Hope this keeps up.
    #30
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