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Hot!Estimate your 3080 Ti via graph!

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danpeg
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2021/06/24 13:14:46 (permalink)
Attached is a graph of drops for various 3080 Ti cards.
Update 10-29-2021. The flagship 3967 is dropping so fast, it needs its own graph. It does not graph well with the 3969 nor the 3968. Also restarting the regression from 10/1 as its pace is significantly changed.
 
 
  
 
Solid lines are the current regression. Heavy dotted lines are the previous regression. Light dotted lines are the regression prior to that.
post edited by danpeg - 2021/10/30 19:08:42
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    codebluetoo
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    Re: Estimate your 3080 Ti via graph! 2021/06/24 13:29:03 (permalink)
    at 8:14, this makes me want to cry <insert tears>...  LOL!


     
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    #2
    kram36
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    Re: Estimate your 3080 Ti via graph! 2021/06/24 13:35:44 (permalink)
    codebluetoo
    at 8:14, this makes me want to cry <insert tears>...  LOL!


    We know at the least 37 emails to purchase were sent out in the last 5 days on the 3080 Ti FTW3. So looking at your position in the list, 3 to 4 weeks for you to get an email to purchase, if EVGA keeps up that pace.
    #3
    bigtoes18
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    Re: Estimate your 3080 Ti via graph! 2021/06/24 13:37:32 (permalink)
    Very nice work!
    #4
    AlexP11223
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    Re: Estimate your 3080 Ti via graph! 2021/06/24 13:58:48 (permalink)
    Graph for EU:
     

    #5
    Erikgresch
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    Re: Estimate your 3080 Ti via graph! 2021/06/24 14:12:55 (permalink)
    Ummm doubt it's going to take six months for it to go 20 minutes up in the queue.
    #6
    vinnychan
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    Re: Estimate your 3080 Ti via graph! 2021/06/24 14:26:57 (permalink)
    Ouch.. I got in at 8:34am PT..
     
    Was unable to get in all the way up until 8AM at which point I gave up. Screen to click the notify button would show up but I was somehow logged out and couldn't log back in between 6am - 8am PT. Decided to check again at 8:30AM and was finally able to do it.
    #7
    tyranus7
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    Re: Estimate your 3080 Ti via graph! 2021/06/24 21:57:19 (permalink)
    I'd invert the axis. Make it so the X axis is the "independent variable" which in this case is the costumer timestamp

    Desktop: | Gigabyte Z490 Vision-G | Intel Core i9 10850K | GPU: COLORFUL iGame GeForce RTX 3080 Ti Advanced OC-V | 16 GB RAM DDR4@4400 MHz CL18 | 1 TB NVMe + 10 TB HDD | Intel 2.5 Gbps Ethernet | 1080p @144Hz | EVGA 750W Supernova P2 |
     
    12G-P5-3967-KR     6/3/2021 7:48:19 AM PT    Yes (ordered/cancelled by EVGA)

    12G-P5-3968-KR     6/3/2021 7:51:30 AM PT    No
    12G-P5-3953-KR     6/30/2021 6:30:34 AM PT   Yes (skipped)

     
     
    #8
    criskoe
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    Re: Estimate your 3080 Ti via graph! 2021/06/24 22:29:21 (permalink)
    Definitely not trying to mock your enthusiasm and will to spend the time to do this. Good for you. But when I look at the graphs all I see is this... LOL .
    post edited by criskoe - 2021/06/24 22:35:21
    #9
    danpeg
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    Re: Estimate your 3080 Ti via graph! 2021/06/26 09:23:47 (permalink)
    Graph update with more data on 3967 and added 3958.
    #10
    Cbreezy1101
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    Re: Estimate your 3080 Ti via graph! 2021/06/26 09:50:47 (permalink)
    This is pretty dope! I got in at 7:58 and I honestly wouldn’t be shocked if it was October when I got my card…
    #11
    phased-in
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    Re: Estimate your 3080 Ti via graph! 2021/06/26 12:49:23 (permalink)
    Hmm, I have a couple of hours to go. See you guys at Christmas time.
    post edited by phased-in - 2021/06/26 12:56:59

    10900k @5.1 | 3080ti FE | Asus ROG Maximus XII Formula | G.Skill Trident Z DDR4-3600 32gb | 2TB 970 Evo Plus M.2 | Noctua NH-D15S | Seasonic PX-850 | Cooler Master H500 with two extra NF-A14 fans on top | My Elite Referral code
    #12
    jlantz5
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    Re: Estimate your 3080 Ti via graph! 2021/06/26 13:37:49 (permalink)
    guess i'm never getting one :(
    #13
    danpeg
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    Re: Estimate your 3080 Ti via graph! 2021/06/29 18:23:44 (permalink)
    Edit 6-29-2021: More movement on 3967. Added 3969 to the graph.
    #14
    danpeg
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    Re: Estimate your 3080 Ti via graph! 2021/07/06 19:09:13 (permalink)
    Update 7-6-2021: Of the ones I am tracking, only 3967 advanced. Lowered the slope though. I hear on the forums though that there will be a small drop later this week and more next week. Lets hope the pace picks up instead of slowing down.
    #15
    Extermicide
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    Re: Estimate your 3080 Ti via graph! 2021/07/06 19:33:03 (permalink)
    I got in at 08:06.      Was kinda hoping to see this card by August - but loosing hope for that.
    #16
    danpeg
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    Re: Estimate your 3080 Ti via graph! 2021/07/07 09:09:46 (permalink)
    Extermicide
    I got in at 08:06.      Was kinda hoping to see this card by August - but loosing hope for that.


    I'm after you at 8:12. Lets hope things speed up. TSMC is building a new plant and so is INTEL. Intel will not help NVIDIA directly but may give TSMC even more allotted chip manufacturing for NVIDIA. I would like mine to speed up to before Christmas but right now it looks like January.
    #17
    danpeg
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    Re: Estimate your 3080 Ti via graph! 2021/07/09 08:44:43 (permalink)
    Update 7-9-2021: Another small bump for FTW3 Ultra. XC3 Ultra HC also added to the graph. Its pretty flat though. Queue time for this on is on the right.
    #18
    Rcrist90
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    Re: Estimate your 3080 Ti via graph! 2021/07/09 12:26:36 (permalink)
    So you guys are going to hate me, but I managed a 3080 EVGA black ultra on the Newegg shuffle, I also won the newegg shuffle a month or so back for an asrock 6800xt and an asrock mobo, good deal. So I got that card too. I get pings from the Falcodrin Discord for certain GPUs and got a ping and it was another ****ing amazon one, either scams or scalpers usually. Got annoyed and nearly turned off the nonstop pings, but... I took a chance and clicked faster than I ever had in my life. After just 4 clicks I had bought a GPU, I had no idea what it was or how much it cost, so with great apprehension I looked and... BAM!!! EVGA 3080TI FTW Ultra! $1400!! Could not believe it. Wasn't a scam, wasn't a scalper. And somehow I managed to beat the bots. The discord server was full of "Ihateu" and "gratz, man!" Long story short, anyone want to buy an evga 3080 black ultra? And/or a 6800xt??? Also, word to the wise, if you think that 10ish more fps is worth that extra money, then sure, get the Ti. But if you don't even have a 4k120 monitor/TV, don't bother. The 3080 is far more than enough to run 4k60, except for Cyberpunk... lol. But if you do have 4k120hz display, I promise you, you won't notice a difference between 100fps and 110 fps, but you will notice the missing $500ish more you spent on a Ti vs the standard 3080. Hell, if you have a trumotion AND motionpro TV like I do, 60fps with both of those turned on looks so much better than a rock-solid 120fps. Motionpro comprehensively destroys any motion blur. **** motion blur. The catch is input lag :/ You get used to it though. So it's best for more story-based games than competitive games. 


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    #19
    jaro_irl
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    Re: Estimate your 3080 Ti via graph! 2021/07/14 03:52:13 (permalink)
    Very useful, thank you :)
    #20
    danpeg
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    Re: Estimate your 3080 Ti via graph! 2021/07/14 07:37:14 (permalink)
    Update 7-14-2021: A few more drops. Added 3968 also.
    #21
    danpeg
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    Re: Estimate your 3080 Ti via graph! 2021/07/15 08:15:25 (permalink)
    Update 7-14-2021 evening. More drops showed up.
    #22
    Jstandaert
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    Re: Estimate your 3080 Ti via graph! 2021/07/15 08:23:31 (permalink)
    I have been a network engineer for almost 15 years and it STILL TAKES ME WAY TO LONG TO FIGURE OUT WHAT THE GRAPH IS TELLING ME. I honestly only figured it out because I have the Kram lists as a reference. dream big kids, I am a total moron and still got a great job  

    Save some Dough-Use my Code
     
     
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    faux123
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    Re: Estimate your 3080 Ti via graph! 2021/07/15 19:37:35 (permalink)
    subbed for updates
    #24
    danpeg
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    Re: Estimate your 3080 Ti via graph! 2021/07/15 22:51:23 (permalink)
    Update 7-15-2021. Big drops making some jumps in the graph. Lets hope these slopes keep getting steeper!
    #25
    Jstandaert
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    Re: Estimate your 3080 Ti via graph! 2021/07/16 08:39:19 (permalink)
    danpeg
    Update 7-15-2021. Big drops making some jumps in the graph. Lets hope these slopes keep getting steeper!


    you have a typo on the time stamps. it goes 10am to 910am. top right corner 

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    #26
    rzelek506
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    Re: Estimate your 3080 Ti via graph! 2021/07/16 09:01:42 (permalink)
    I like how  the 3969 graph went from worst to best after just one day..
     
    FYI, the EVGA server was primarily down between 7:30am-7:40am and only a very few people were able to sign up during that time window. Most of the folks either joined between 7:20am-7:30am or after 7:40am
    So it's not really fair to show linear movement between 7:30am-7:40am.
    My recommendation would be to remove that row completely from the graph so that it would go 7:20am, 7:40am, 7:50am and so on..
    Then you could put a small note in your original post indicating that the server was primarily down during that 10min window and only a very few people were able to join then.
    #27
    danpeg
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    Re: Estimate your 3080 Ti via graph! 2021/07/16 09:27:24 (permalink)
    rzelek506
    I like how  the 3969 graph went from worst to best after just one day..
     
    FYI, the EVGA server was primarily down between 7:30am-7:40am and only a very few people were able to sign up during that time window. Most of the folks either joined between 7:20am-7:30am or after 7:40am
    So it's not really fair to show linear movement between 7:30am-7:40am.
    My recommendation would be to remove that row completely from the graph so that it would go 7:20am, 7:40am, 7:50am and so on..
    Then you could put a small note in your original post indicating that the server was primarily down during that 10min window and only a very few people were able to join then.


    Yes, both Hydro Copper configurations have the steeper slopes. I suspect this configuration is not as popular or at least its the last on everyone signed up for. So when it does advance, it jumps.
     
    I do like your suggestion but what I was planning on doing is that if there is a significant change in the slope at any time due to server status change or even if there is a change in rate that EVGA can produce these or any other unknown influence, that I would start a new regression line. I do appreciate you guys looking at my chart and commenting.
    #28
    danpeg
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    Re: Estimate your 3080 Ti via graph! 2021/07/16 19:25:42 (permalink)
    Update 7-16-2021. Drops keep coming. Keep it up EVGA team.
    #29
    danpeg
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    Re: Estimate your 3080 Ti via graph! 2021/07/19 19:20:31 (permalink)
    Update 7-19-2021. Drop on 3958 and an adjustment to 3959. 3958 was matching 3968 but it seems to be picking up steam. Hope this keeps up.
    #30
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