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Hot!Estimate your 3080 Ti via graph!

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danpeg
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Re: Estimate your 3080 Ti via graph! 2021/07/21 16:52:25 (permalink)
Update 7-21-2021. 3959 started slow but continues steeply. If the trend continues I may eliminate the first two date points from the regression. The Hydro Coppers must have had less sign ups. Their slopes look nice and steep.
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rzelek506
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Re: Estimate your 3080 Ti via graph! 2021/07/21 17:19:01 (permalink)
danpeg
Update 7-21-2021. 3959 started slow but continues steeply. If the trend continues I may eliminate the first two date points from the regression. The Hydro Coppers must have had less sign ups. Their slopes look nice and steep.




Thanks for the update!
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danpeg
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Re: Estimate your 3080 Ti via graph! 2021/07/22 15:54:40 (permalink)
Update 7-22-2021: Added dashed lines of the same color to show the previous regression so you can see the action from the latest drop. Let me know if you think its a good addition. Good action on 3959, you can see the slope steepen a lot!
#33
razor_pk
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Re: Estimate your 3080 Ti via graph! 2021/07/23 11:11:23 (permalink)
whats this tool name ?
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danpeg
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Re: Estimate your 3080 Ti via graph! 2021/07/24 07:32:23 (permalink)
razor_pk
whats this tool name ?


Just using gnuplot.
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danpeg
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Re: Estimate your 3080 Ti via graph! 2021/08/03 08:13:24 (permalink)
Update 8-2-2021: Slow week last week. The SC3 HC did get another good jump. Time wise on the queue I believe it will surpass all the others.
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danpeg
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Re: Estimate your 3080 Ti via graph! 2021/08/05 10:11:04 (permalink)
Attached is a graph of drops for various 3080 Ti cards.
Update 8-5-2021: After a slow week, the flagship 3967 took a nice 2+ min leap. The solid purple line is mostly hiding under the red line.
 
 
Notes: First data point for 3967 not included in regression line as it appears to be an outlier.
Solid lines are the current regression. Heavy dotted lines are the previous regression. Light dotted lines are the regression prior to that.
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danpeg
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Re: Estimate your 3080 Ti via graph! 2021/08/05 17:40:36 (permalink)
Attached is a graph of drops for various 3080 Ti cards.
Update 8-5-2021: After a slow week, the flagship 3967 took a nice 2+ min leap. The solid purple line is mostly hiding under the red line.
Update 2: 3958 also took a leap. Lets hope this keeps up.
 

Notes: First data point for 3967 not included in regression line as it appears to be an outlier.
Solid lines are the current regression. Heavy dotted lines are the previous regression. Light dotted lines are the regression prior to that.
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rzelek506
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Re: Estimate your 3080 Ti via graph! 2021/08/05 17:46:27 (permalink)
danpeg
Attached is a graph of drops for various 3080 Ti cards.
Update 8-5-2021: After a slow week, the flagship 3967 took a nice 2+ min leap. The solid purple line is mostly hiding under the red line.
Update 2: 3958 also took a leap. Lets hope this keeps up.
 
 
Notes: First data point for 3967 not included in regression line as it appears to be an outlier.
Solid lines are the current regression. Heavy dotted lines are the previous regression. Light dotted lines are the regression prior to that.


Great job, keep it up!
#39
danpeg
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Re: Estimate your 3080 Ti via graph! 2021/08/10 08:28:27 (permalink)
Update 8-9-2021: 3967 and 3958 took good jumps speeding both up.

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#40
danpeg
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Re: Estimate your 3080 Ti via graph! 2021/08/12 07:37:08 (permalink)
Attached is a graph of drops for various 3080 Ti cards.
Update 8-11-2021: 3967 and 3958 keep getting bumps.
 
 
Notes: First data point for 3967 not included in regression line as it appears to be an outlier.
Solid lines are the current regression. Heavy dotted lines are the previous regression. Light dotted lines are the regression prior to that.
#41
kevinc313
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Re: Estimate your 3080 Ti via graph! 2021/08/12 07:54:18 (permalink)
3968 dragging.  Sigh.
#42
DonaldTheGiver
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Re: Estimate your 3080 Ti via graph! 2021/08/12 10:26:43 (permalink)
This graph is making it look like some people might be lucky to get picked in que by maybe 2025 when 5x series comes around, oof. 
#43
kevinc313
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Re: Estimate your 3080 Ti via graph! 2021/08/19 17:00:58 (permalink)
Bump for an underrated thread.  Gave up on waiting til the end of the year for the 3968 and ordered a 3090 bundle.  Thanks OP!
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rzelek506
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Re: Estimate your 3080 Ti via graph! 2021/08/19 17:09:51 (permalink)
kevinc313
Bump for an underrated thread.  Gave up on waiting til the end of the year for the 3968 and ordered a 3090 bundle.  Thanks OP!


Agreed!
Hope OP continues to update this graph!
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danpeg
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Re: Estimate your 3080 Ti via graph! 2021/08/19 17:27:35 (permalink)
Update 8-19-2021: 3958 got a good bump. 3968 is slowing down.
 
 

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rzelek506
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Re: Estimate your 3080 Ti via graph! 2021/08/19 17:47:45 (permalink)
danpeg
Update 8-19-2021: 3958 got a good bump. 3968 is slowing down.
 
 


Thanks for the update!
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danpeg
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Re: Estimate your 3080 Ti via graph! 2021/08/20 08:29:08 (permalink)
Attached is a graph of drops for various 3080 Ti cards.
Update 8-19-2021: 3958 got a good bump. 3968 is slowing down.
Extra: a few more came in: 3968 improved but still dropped from the regression line. The 3969 got a drop but well below the expected line. Lets hope this trend reverses.
 
 
Notes: First data point for 3967 not included in regression line as it appears to be an outlier.
Solid lines are the current regression. Heavy dotted lines are the previous regression. Light dotted lines are the regression prior to that.

Attached Image(s)

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danpeg
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Re: Estimate your 3080 Ti via graph! 2021/08/24 06:56:02 (permalink)
Attached is a graph of drops for various 3080 Ti cards.
Update 8-23-2021: The flagship 3967 got a really good bump.
 
post edited by danpeg - 2021/08/24 08:00:09

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danpeg
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Re: Estimate your 3080 Ti via graph! 2021/08/24 17:24:04 (permalink)
Attached is a graph of drops for various 3080 Ti cards.
Update 8-24-2021: The flagship 3967 jumped again and passed the 8:00 queue time! Let's hope this keeps up.
 
 
Notes: First data point for 3967 not included in regression line as it appears to be an outlier.
Solid lines are the current regression. Heavy dotted lines are the previous regression. Light dotted lines are the regression prior to that.

Attached Image(s)

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danpeg
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Re: Estimate your 3080 Ti via graph! 2021/08/27 15:23:54 (permalink)
Attached is a graph of drops for various 3080 Ti cards.
Update 8-27-2021: The flagship 3967 keeps jumping. Great news!
They say that you can manipulate data to make a point. Here we have an example. One can argue that there have been enough drops this month for the 3967 that this must be a new production rate. I have added a black dashed line that is the regression for 3967, but only for the drops in the last month. As you can see, this rate looks a lot more promising for us that still await a card.
Opinions?
 
 
Notes: First data point for 3967 not included in regression line as it appears to be an outlier.
Solid lines are the current regression. Heavy dotted lines are the previous regression. Light dotted lines are the regression prior to that.

Attached Image(s)

#51
rzelek506
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Re: Estimate your 3080 Ti via graph! 2021/08/27 15:34:06 (permalink)
danpeg
Attached is a graph of drops for various 3080 Ti cards.
Update 8-27-2021: The flagship 3967 keeps jumping. Great news!
They say that you can manipulate data to make a point. Here we have an example. One can argue that there have been enough drops this month for the 3967 that this must be a new production rate. I have added a black dashed line that is the regression for 3967, but only for the drops in the last month. As you can see, this rate looks a lot more promising for us that still await a card.
Opinions?
 
 
Notes: First data point for 3967 not included in regression line as it appears to be an outlier.
Solid lines are the current regression. Heavy dotted lines are the previous regression. Light dotted lines are the regression prior to that.


Thanks for the update!
The graph looks great, but I think the graph is getting to a point where it is getting too cluttered to show all of the SKUs in one graph.
My recommendation would be to separate them so there is only one graph per SKU or to only show one line per SKU, if that makes sense.
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danpeg
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Re: Estimate your 3080 Ti via graph! 2021/08/27 16:01:31 (permalink)
rzelek506
 
Thanks for the update!
The graph looks great, but I think the graph is getting to a point where it is getting too cluttered to show all of the SKUs in one graph.
My recommendation would be to separate them so there is only one graph per SKU or to only show one line per SKU, if that makes sense.


Yes it is a bit cluttered. I might break them up. What I really wanted an opinion on is the new black line. Its a regression on just the last month of data on the 3967 instead of regressing from the beginning. Sure looks like we have enough data points this month on this one to argue a new trend. What do you think?
#53
sweeetah
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Re: Estimate your 3080 Ti via graph! 2021/08/27 16:06:49 (permalink)
Thx for sharing
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rzelek506
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Re: Estimate your 3080 Ti via graph! 2021/08/27 16:33:52 (permalink)
danpeg
rzelek506
 
Thanks for the update!
The graph looks great, but I think the graph is getting to a point where it is getting too cluttered to show all of the SKUs in one graph.
My recommendation would be to separate them so there is only one graph per SKU or to only show one line per SKU, if that makes sense.


Yes it is a bit cluttered. I might break them up. What I really wanted an opinion on is the new black line. Its a regression on just the last month of data on the 3967 instead of regressing from the beginning. Sure looks like we have enough data points this month on this one to argue a new trend. What do you think?


Yeah, I agree that the new black line is pretty good and also more realistic than the older line for that SKU.
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danpeg
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Re: Estimate your 3080 Ti via graph! 2021/08/31 09:27:33 (permalink)
Attached is a graph of drops for various 3080 Ti cards.
Update 8-30-2021: The flagship 3967 keeps jumping.
There are many drops on the flagship 3967 and there appears to be an increase in going through the queue for it beginning 8/1. So, the black dashed line is the alternate regression line which is of course, much more optimistic for us! Lets hope this keeps up.
 

 
 
Solid lines are the current regression. Heavy dotted lines are the previous regression. Light dotted lines are the regression prior to that.

Attached Image(s)

#56
rzelek506
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Re: Estimate your 3080 Ti via graph! 2021/08/31 09:45:09 (permalink)
danpeg
Attached is a graph of drops for various 3080 Ti cards.
Update 8-30-2021: The flagship 3967 keeps jumping.
There are many drops on the flagship 3967 and there appears to be an increase in going through the queue for it beginning 8/1. So, the black dashed line is the alternate regression line which is of course, much more optimistic for us! Lets hope this keeps up.
 

 
 
Solid lines are the current regression. Heavy dotted lines are the previous regression. Light dotted lines are the regression prior to that.


Looks great!
#57
famich
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Re: Estimate your 3080 Ti via graph! 2021/09/01 12:30:32 (permalink)

Ryzen5900x ASUS B550 StrixE  GSKILL 3600 DDR32Gb
ASUS RTX 3090 OC STRIX
LianLi 
#58
danpeg
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Re: Estimate your 3080 Ti via graph! 2021/09/02 07:58:53 (permalink)
Attached is a graph of drops for various 3080 Ti cards.
Update 9-01-2021: The flagship 3967 is definitely on a new trend. Regression line for this one is now from 8/1 and on. The Hydro Copper is not getting any love. EVGA should allocate a few more chips to this line.
 
 
 
Solid lines are the current regression. Heavy dotted lines are the previous regression. Light dotted lines are the regression prior to that.

Attached Image(s)

#59
danpeg
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Re: Estimate your 3080 Ti via graph! 2021/09/04 08:59:48 (permalink)
Attached is a graph of drops for various 3080 Ti cards.
Update 9-02-2021
 
 
 
Solid lines are the current regression. Heavy dotted lines are the previous regression. Light dotted lines are the regression prior to that.

Attached Image(s)

#60
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