fbm211
They don't tell us the drop amounts because its really none of our business

enewt

tshalev
 
I think enewt has mentioned he is conservative as well with the estimates just in case there are mistakes. For example, I believe 3755 dropped today and should be up to 3:18 am on 11/5 already. Likewise, 3767 should be up to 6:14 am on 10/30.

I think you are getting those data points from the spreadsheets.  I tend to find the spreadsheet data unreliable.  For example, the 3767 -- clearly in error -- currently lists the head of the queue at 2/16/2021.  In addition to those egregious instances of misinformation (that often don't get corrected for days or even weeks), too often folks input data for one 30 series family on the sheet of another model of the same family (e.g., entries for Gaming Ultras or Gaming Blacks often appear on the Gaming sheets or vice versa). 
 
My summaries rely on actual reports back (both here and on other online sources I trust)...the last thing I want to do is to have my summaries get in front of the real head of the queue and cause folks to worry that they were skipped.

Lumo841
10G-P5-3897-KR9/19/2020 10:35:40 AM PTYes
 
Ordered, using ENEWT code

Bora1114

static.quai
 
I think sometimes people throw around the "supply and demand" argument a little much.  To say scalpers do not cause supply and demand issues is not really how you should look at it.  Do they disrupt overall supply and demand?  No, they don't.  They just serve as pass through price gougers.
 
However, if you think of Supply as total supply available to consumers.  And Demand as total demand for a product from end consumers, you see that both of these consist of three main consumer categories.

1. Gamers, traditional or enthusiastic
2. Scientific computing, to include miners, who may not be scientist themselves, but it's still at its core very math driven
3. Scalpers

Scalpers have both demand requirements, they need cards to sell.  And supply requirements, they can only buy what is available.  They have a third unique relationship, they cut out X total supply from groups 1 & 2, and then sell them that that chunk of supply at hugely marked up prices.  Your retailers don't do that, manufacturers don't do that.  
 
You think guy out there buying up multiple cards and reselling them is somehow one of the millions most smart people that manufacturers or retailers don't know about?  No, he's a grey area price gouger who doesn't have to care about contracts, customer backlash, and / or government attention.  I  think the more this happens, the more you'll see at least the government eye these practices.  It's too much money at this point not to.
 
You are somewhat incorrect to say they have no effect, because they are part of the demand side.  Fine, but when they want to unload supply side, you don't want this
SupplyScalper <= DemandGamer + DemandSci, where SupplyScalper is relatively high
What we need to do is make sure that when SupplyScalper is relatively high
SupplyScalper >> DemandGamerFromScalper + DemandSciFromScalper, where DemandFromScalperTotal total is close to zero.  Scalpers eat billions of dollars and stop scalping.  This would stop scalping.
 
Buying from scalpers hurts the ecosystem (and by scalper, I don't mean someone reselling a card they no longer need, it's the big time profiteers of this mess) 

Your entire argument in regard to scalpers having a effect on supply and demand can be dismantled with 2 examples. They do play into both the supply and demand side but only as an intermediary to adjust the price of the good to the current market price. MSI and Newegg are starting to play the same role to take more profits for themselves. The current market price is not the price set by the retailer but the price you can go out and purchase the product at any time without having to spam F5 or wait in queue for. This is the price for which demand=supply. 
 
1. If Nvidia and AIBs raise prices to scalper levels, will the scalpers still purchase cards in the hopes to resell them? No, because the price of the card would be at the going market price therefor removing them from the equation. The scalpers as a whole move lower quantities than AIBs and NVIDIA do directly to large miners and do not have the capital to bulk purchase at the going market price for tiny gains if any. Small miners and gamers are significantly more price sensitive on average and will be more willing to settle for alternatives and many already have.
2. If scalping was completely banned and no longer existed overnight, would the going market price change lower? No, large miners would start bulk purchases from retailers to take up any remaining supply largely bypassing normal sale channels. Because these cards have close to a 100 day or less ROI at retail it makes no sense for retail pricing to be the going market price. This is what happened in 2017/18 when nvidia and amd failed to meet demand without many scalpers. 
 
I don't like scalpers but like i said before, this is nvidias fault more than any1s. Gov't intervention will only hurt the market as it always does. 

justin_43
I just got a notification to buy 08G-P5-3755-KR 11/5/2020 7:36:01 AM PT YES

yaryar15
10G-P5-3897-KR 9/19/2020 10:45:34 AM PT Yes

I used your code enewt, thanks for keeping the spreadsheet updated all these months. Btw I finally climbed back into GC in RL, 5 wins away from rewards now. I'll set you up here soon.

enewt
In case there was any question as to which company is the de facto mustache twirler in this whole thing, NVIDIA is now releasing a dedicated crypto-mining product...a budget-priced 3060. While I appreciate the argument that they are trying to draw miners away from the mainstream cards, I would argue that it will have the net effect of just making more cards available to miners (both their dedicated cards and mainstream gaming cards)...and will do naught to help us with our plight.  I would much prefer that they produce 3090, 3080, 3070 and 3060ti silicon for those of us that have been waiting since September....  ARGH!
 
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nvidia-releasing-dedicated-crypto-mining-product-amid-shortage-of-gaming-cards-11613678848?mod=mw_latestnews
 

enewt

justin_43
 
Yes, just completed the purchase

Congratulations again!

enewt
In case there was any question as to which company is the de facto mustache twirler in this whole thing, NVIDIA is now releasing a dedicated crypto-mining product...a budget-priced 3060. While I appreciate the argument that they are trying to draw miners away from the mainstream cards, I would argue that it will have the net effect of just making more cards available to miners (both their dedicated cards and mainstream gaming cards)...and will do naught to help us with our plight.  I would much prefer that they produce 3090, 3080, 3070 and 3060ti silicon for those of us that have been waiting since September....  ARGH!
 

 

Nonimportantuser
 

enewt
In case there was any question as to which company is the de facto mustache twirler in this whole thing, NVIDIA is now releasing a dedicated crypto-mining product...a budget-priced 3060. While I appreciate the argument that they are trying to draw miners away from the mainstream cards, I would argue that it will have the net effect of just making more cards available to miners (both their dedicated cards and mainstream gaming cards)...and will do naught to help us with our plight.  I would much prefer that they produce 3090, 3080, 3070 and 3060ti silicon for those of us that have been waiting since September....  ARGH!
 

At the same time NVidia is deliberately reducing the hashrate by 50% on the 3060s.

enewt

Nonimportantuser
 

enewt
In case there was any question as to which company is the de facto mustache twirler in this whole thing, NVIDIA is now releasing a dedicated crypto-mining product...a budget-priced 3060. While I appreciate the argument that they are trying to draw miners away from the mainstream cards, I would argue that it will have the net effect of just making more cards available to miners (both their dedicated cards and mainstream gaming cards)...and will do naught to help us with our plight.  I would much prefer that they produce 3090, 3080, 3070 and 3060ti silicon for those of us that have been waiting since September....  ARGH!
 

At the same time NVidia is deliberately reducing the hashrate by 50% on the 3060s.

 
But not the 3060Tis, 3070s, 3080s or 3090s...nice talking point, eh?