Randallell
Does a 3080 from the Step Up come with a 3 year warranty, or does it go based off of the warranty of your previous card?

You're current card's warranty transfers to your new card.

Randallell
Does a 3080 from the Step Up come with a 3 year warranty, or does it go based off of the warranty of your previous card?

Step-Up is considered a new product as far as warranty goes.  The warranty will begin from the date you made the purchase.

SteveO92

Trackseven75
My date is 10/23 so I guess it will be some time still.

 
My graph shows 10/11/2021 for someone who signed up on 10/23/2020. The assumptions here are one point for each signup date, equal weighting for each date, and things continue as they have since they started processing step-ups. The plot has an r-squared value of 0.9815.
 
I predicted I would get my drop on 7/3/2021, I got it on 7/6/2021.
 
What would break the graph is if things HAVE changed. In which case you should expect sooner, but if they haven't, you can expect October. So look at this as a worst case scenario.

What about who signed in on 10/11 :D

EVGATech_LeeM

Randallell
Does a 3080 from the Step Up come with a 3 year warranty, or does it go based off of the warranty of your previous card?

Step-Up is considered a new product as far as warranty goes.  The warranty will begin from the date you made the purchase.

What? So if I bought the extended warranty I get a total of 10 years when I stepup to the 3080? Cool

Gremlin256

SteveO92

Trackseven75
My date is 10/23 so I guess it will be some time still.

 
My graph shows 10/11/2021 for someone who signed up on 10/23/2020. The assumptions here are one point for each signup date, equal weighting for each date, and things continue as they have since they started processing step-ups. The plot has an r-squared value of 0.9815.
 
I predicted I would get my drop on 7/3/2021, I got it on 7/6/2021.
 
What would break the graph is if things HAVE changed. In which case you should expect sooner, but if they haven't, you can expect October. So look at this as a worst case scenario.

What about who signed in on 10/11 :D

Again, take with a grain of salt at this point: August 2nd. If things are still gaining traction, maybe a bit longer.

I asked Jacob on Twitter if there would be any 3080 Step Ups this week. He said unfortunately no. Here's hoping it's made up for next week!

SteveO92

bicknyers
No way 10/11 for a 10/23 sign up, is it linear regression or did you fit a quadratic/exponential? I think more weight to later dates, since there was a lot of variation in the constrained supply early on.

That was my reaction too when I first punched in the date. After some thought though, the drops have not been consistent. Sometimes drops a couple of weeks in a row, then nothing at all for a couple of weeks. Typically the drops cover a couple of days at most. Under what we've been seeing historically, 10/11 for a 10/23 sign up is not actually crazy.

It's a linear regression plot - quadratic/linear had some crazy results for some reason. I had also plotted only more recent points to try seeing how that affected the outcome. Funny thing was, the latest iteration had both plots give me the same predicted date (sheer coincidence -  I think). In the end it doesn't really matter. Trying to accurately predict these drop dates considering more than logical systems are at play here is just lunacy. In my opinion, with something so complex, it's just better to keep it simple and accept it's flawed.
 
As mentioned before, if things have actually changed, then yes, it would break a linear formula. That also means you can expect your card sooner than 3 months from now. At least that's a ballpark window.

Definitely agree with all points there, it's a good ballpark for sure. When I saw R^2=0.98 I was thinking ahhh that's gotta be really overfit, no way 3080 stock has been this predictable. I did something similar around Dec./Jan. to set my expectations of what kind of timescale we were talking about for waiting, and realized at the time that it was best for me to just forget about getting the card until summer

Got my 3080 installed yesterday, runs great although I need to get used to 90 being the new temp to watch for as opposed to my 2070S which I was always kind of looking at 80 as the max temp under load.
 
Anyway, godspeed to you all, stay the course, you will get your card, and hopefully this shortage will end soon!

Kudos to thee! What are you going to play first?
 
And also, to all waiting, Jacob followed up his tweet with saying that there will be a lot of good movement with the 3080 in the Step Up program in the coming weeks, so that's DEFINITELY news. That's not something he would normally say.

Almost have my card, so far process has been very smooth:
 
Step 5 was 7/8
Shipped my 2070 Super on 7/9 via UPS (Cost was $23.04 for UPS ground w/ $500 insurance from Phoenix)
Card delivered to EVGA on 7/13 and got email from EVGA that it was received and being processed
UPS tracking number received from EVGA on 7/14 w/ expected delivery of tomorrow 7/16 (UPS ground)