Heck of a jump. We were on 10/6 last I checked. Looks like it's less than a week of the step up calendar until my 10/15 finally!

my 2070 super arrived early on Friday 7/12 but the website didn't update till late that afternoon. was hoping to get a tracking number sometime today but still haven't. anyone else from this last batch also in the same spot? 

ItsAlyJay
my 2070 super arrived early on Friday 7/12 but the website didn't update till late that afternoon. was hoping to get a tracking number sometime today but still haven't. anyone else from this last batch also in the same spot? 

Yep, same situation.
Though mine previously had a water block on it, so I expect the inspection of it to take a little longer than usual. Projected ship is the 14th

Trackseven75
My date is 10/23 so I guess it will be some time still.

 
My graph shows 10/11/2021 for someone who signed up on 10/23/2020. The assumptions here are one point for each signup date, equal weighting for each date, and things continue as they have since they started processing step-ups. The plot has an r-squared value of 0.9815.
 
I predicted I would get my drop on 7/3/2021, I got it on 7/6/2021.
 
What would break the graph is if things HAVE changed. In which case you should expect sooner, but if they haven't, you can expect October. So look at this as a worst case scenario.

Best case scenario, could be as early as two weeks away if both get a drop like last week.

No way 10/11 for a 10/23 sign up, is it linear regression or did you fit a quadratic/exponential? I think more weight to later dates, since there was a lot of variation in the constrained supply early on.

My 2070 super was delivered today and they shipped my new card. Delivery is expected for 7/15.

Just to give you guys an idea of turnaround time, I got step 2,3,4,5 all on the same day, 7/6. Shipped my 2070S out on 7/7, arrived 7/9 but not processed in until 7/12 due to the weekend.
 
Initially on check in, they had an estimated ship date of 7/15, but I got an email from UPS last night saying it would be delivered today (I paid for overnight shipping).
 
I checked the site today, my new card has been registered and tracking info has been updated - I am sitting at home waiting for the UPS guy!!

bicknyers
No way 10/11 for a 10/23 sign up, is it linear regression or did you fit a quadratic/exponential? I think more weight to later dates, since there was a lot of variation in the constrained supply early on.

That was my reaction too when I first punched in the date. After some thought though, the drops have not been consistent. Sometimes drops a couple of weeks in a row, then nothing at all for a couple of weeks. Typically the drops cover a couple of days at most. Under what we've been seeing historically, 10/11 for a 10/23 sign up is not actually crazy.

It's a linear regression plot - quadratic/linear had some crazy results for some reason. I had also plotted only more recent points to try seeing how that affected the outcome. Funny thing was, the latest iteration had both plots give me the same predicted date (sheer coincidence -  I think). In the end it doesn't really matter. Trying to accurately predict these drop dates considering more than logical systems are at play here is just lunacy. In my opinion, with something so complex, it's just better to keep it simple and accept it's flawed.
 
As mentioned before, if things have actually changed, then yes, it would break a linear formula. That also means you can expect your card sooner than 3 months from now. At least that's a ballpark window.

Does a 3080 from the Step Up come with a 3 year warranty, or does it go based off of the warranty of your previous card?