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Hot!The upcoming used GPU Exodus

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yaymz
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2022/05/25 10:29:55 (permalink)
And by GPU exodus, I mean exodus from miner's rigs.
 
Been hearing multiple people speculate on what this Summer and Fall might look like on the used GPU marketplace scene (ebay, etc).  The theory is that so many people around the globe are getting out of crypto right now, and that there will be a flood of 30 series (and others) GPUs that are trying to be offloaded while there is still value.  We could see prices plummet with everyone trying to undercut each other.  Could mean a good opportunity to score a quality used GPU as we head into Summer and Fall.  Again this is all speculation and just meant for fun, but to also maybe provide some insight to what could happen in the near future for anyone on a budget or looking to upgrade.
 
Some factors worth taking into consideration:
  1. Everyone knows Crypto is down.  As of today BTC (and specifically Ethereum) is down 50% from it's peak value 9 months ago.  I'd speculate that we will continue to see prices rise and fall, but it does seem like we hit the ceiling 9 months ago, and there isn't much to indicate that the prices on BTC will go up any time soon.  ROI has diminished greatly.
  2. Energy prices up.  This factors in to point #1 on ROI.  With projected blackouts forecasted this Summer, expect energy prices to continue to rise making it even less appealing to run a mining rig.
  3. Economic factors / inflation - 2020 through 2021 saw many people at home with nothing to do and free money in their pockets from the gov't, so there was much higher demand on the limited supply.  This year is different with people returning to work/school and getting outside the house, along with crushing food, gas and general good prices.  In short, people have less expendable income to build new computers/upgrade their gpus and pay top dollar doing so.
  4. (rumored) 40 series will devalue older series cards on launch day. dropping prices even further.
  5. The rumored 40 series GPUs coming out early (late July early August).  If true,  some will say that an early release could be a strategic move in response to newer AMD skus recently dropped, along with blocking market share for Intel Arc GPUs which are now delayed.  But other people are speculating that Nvidia may be well aware of this potential used GPU exodus and they doing everything to get their product out before this all happens.
  6. Current GPU's selling at below MSRP.  Just today it was announced on Videocardz that EVGA's flagship 3090ti is now selling below MSRP.  This would suggest that we are finally starting to see healthy inventory levels.  I would speculate that they have healthy inbound shipments as well and this is when you see discounts happen on hard goods that have a logistical balancing act.  Link: https://videocardz.com/ne...rtx-3090-ti-under-msrp
  7. Scalping is dead.   See above point #6.
 
Curious what others might have to add to these points and to know if you agree on these points or if you disagree.  My projection is seeing some great value on say a 3090 card, maybe with-in days or weeks after the 40 series launch.  People will argue that buying a used or mining GPU is a bad idea..  It is always a buyer beware kind of thing obviously.
post edited by yaymz - 2022/06/16 10:40:39
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    Grey_Beard
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    Re: The upcoming used GPU Exodus 2022/05/25 12:02:55 (permalink)
    This has been in motion for some time. This is why I waited so long to buy a newer GPU. I usually do watercolors rigs which is also a consideration when buying past generations of gear. The situation you describe will impact all areas of the DIY computer market. DDR5, NVMe, motherboards, CPUs, etc. I would also not be surprised to see more delays in new chips and GPUs given the conditions. Expect the super hot NVIDIA stock price to take a hit as the market retreats. This may be positive news if you are looking for a new car, as this may create the inventory there that has been lacking based on the “supply chain,” err bad business decision price gouging and profiteering of the recent times.



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    Hoggle
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    Re: The upcoming used GPU Exodus 2022/05/25 12:08:07 (permalink)
    Mining has been around for a long time and we didn't see a flood of 10XX cards four years ago and we didn't really see a flood two years ago of the 20XX. In the past mining has crashed and no huge rush to unload.
    post edited by Hoggle - 2022/05/25 23:36:10

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    XrayMan
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    Re: The upcoming used GPU Exodus 2022/05/25 21:24:14 (permalink)
     
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    MSim
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    Re: The upcoming used GPU Exodus 2022/05/26 01:23:55 (permalink)
    If you waited this long, keep waiting until market on GPU hits rock bottom.  I bet will see 40 series cards this year. Just hope they finally keep prices in check (yeah right i know). I can't stomach over $800+ for XX80's cards. Will probably have to wait until Intel GPU's are on the market to help keep prices in check for mid/low tier cards.
     
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    yaymz
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    Re: The upcoming used GPU Exodus 2022/05/26 12:08:29 (permalink)
    Hoggle
    Mining has been around for a long time and we didn't see a flood of 10XX cards four years ago and we didn't really see a flood two years ago of the 20XX. In the past mining has crashed and no huge rush to unload.


    Both those generation cards came out well before the crypto frenzy really started (Summer 2020) when the upside was still unknown.  You had people predicting that Bitcoin would hit a million dollars per.  If you look at the year over year chart, you can see where BTC hit it's peak and now where we are on a downward trajectory.  Confidence in crypto just isn't what it used to be 2 years ago.
     
    When I plug my local utility rates into a calculator along with a modest mining rig, I am actually in the red pretty considerably (I live in a high rate area).  The only option to even be slightly in the green would be off peak hour hours of midnight to 6am, which at that point I would be making pennies per day.  Not even worth it at that point.  
     
    (Ethereum is following the same trend as BTC, btw and for the record).
     
     
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    donta1979
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    Re: The upcoming used GPU Exodus 2022/06/21 11:20:46 (permalink)
    Grey_Beard
    This has been in motion for some time. This is why I waited so long to buy a newer GPU. 

    At this point you may as well wait for the 40 series and try to be one of the first in line for one, also word of advice get a new psu to go with it, even a 30 series card you do not want to use older psu's manufactured/designed & released before the 30 series release. It may go pop it may not. Better safe than sorry.

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    yaymz
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    Re: The upcoming used GPU Exodus 2022/06/29 18:26:22 (permalink)
    Saw some debate a week or two ago about whether to buy or avoid used mining GPUs and just watched a new video from Buildzoid on topics covering buying a used mining GPU and would recommend to anyone maybe considering buying one.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1T0npiqjEWQ
     
    Some of the topics covered:
    • Cards to avoid: Radeon VII's, RTX 3090s, Vega and HBM (stacked memory) cards
    • Cards worth keeping an eye out for:  GDDR6 and GDDR5 cards.. (possibly late 30 series released cards like 3080ti and 3090ti)
    • General issues and watchouts
    • Fans/Cleaning/ PMs (preventative maintenance)
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    wmmills
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    Re: The upcoming used GPU Exodus 2022/06/30 08:16:56 (permalink)
    I would say DO NOT get a 3090, used or new, unless you are prepared to do some surgery to cool the back vram much better and at the very least put the hybrid kit on. I think thats where most of the issues are coming from with that card,excessive heat spreading to many components causing resistance/higher power draws/more heat etc... but all the other 30 series cards dont have backside vram and dont seem to be a problem, unless theyve been folded or mined to death. Def agree about the HBM cards, which really is such a shame. The person selling the card matters as much as the card, imo. Some people just dont take care of their things and if it was doing heavy work in a harsh environment just stay far away, its not worth the gamble and headaches.

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    RainStryke
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    Re: The upcoming used GPU Exodus 2022/06/30 09:30:25 (permalink)
    It's nice to see them finally drop, hope it keeps going down.
     
    wmmills
    I would say DO NOT get a 3090, used or new, unless you are prepared to do some surgery to cool the back vram much better and at the very least put the hybrid kit on. I think thats where most of the issues are coming from with that card,excessive heat spreading to many components causing resistance/higher power draws/more heat etc... but all the other 30 series cards dont have backside vram and dont seem to be a problem, unless theyve been folded or mined to death. Def agree about the HBM cards, which really is such a shame. The person selling the card matters as much as the card, imo. Some people just dont take care of their things and if it was doing heavy work in a harsh environment just stay far away, its not worth the gamble and headaches.



    Agreed! If they do get one though... Gonna need an active backplate for the RTX 3090.
    https://www.ekwb.com/shop/ek-quantum-vector-re-rtx-3080-3090-active-backplate-d-rgb-plexi
     
    The bottom and back watercooling blocks were expensive. But... I paid too much for my RTX 3090 to not properly cool it, so I forked out the 350 or so to have it all under water cooling blocks.
     
     

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    veganfanatic
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    Re: The upcoming used GPU Exodus 2022/06/30 10:46:12 (permalink)
    I have seen prices come down dramatically lately

      


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    bill1024
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    Re: The upcoming used GPU Exodus 2022/06/30 15:38:41 (permalink)
    I would love to find a cheap Radeon VII

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