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Hot!So how long will Nvidia sit on the ADA inventory?

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kraade
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2022/12/02 16:46:58 (permalink)
do you think they will release some more 4090s around the 13th or will they just wait until January to keep the artificial shortage in place to keep moving Ampere?
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    the_Scarlet_one
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    Re: So how long will Nvidia sit on the ADA inventory? 2022/12/02 16:50:39 (permalink)
    Really no telling, but I would assume/hope they release more before the holidays.
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    Ravenmaster
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    Re: So how long will Nvidia sit on the ADA inventory? 2022/12/02 17:10:20 (permalink)
    I reckon they'll want to release both Ada and Ampere stock to combat AMD's 7900 XTX and 7900 XT. That means a price drop for 4080's/3090Ti's/3090's/3080Ti's. They will most likely dump a load of stock into retailers and try to steal as many sales away from AMD's launch as they can. Then they'll hold back stock again until the 4070Ti's release in January.

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    kraade
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    Re: So how long will Nvidia sit on the ADA inventory? 2022/12/03 15:17:50 (permalink)
    Ravenmaster
    I reckon they'll want to release both Ada and Ampere stock to combat AMD's 7900 XTX and 7900 XT. That means a price drop for 4080's/3090Ti's/3090's/3080Ti's. They will most likely dump a load of stock into retailers and try to steal as many sales away from AMD's launch as they can. Then they'll hold back stock again until the 4070Ti's release in January.


    From your mouth to Nvidia's ears , I hope so , Got a Block that should be here mid month 
    Nvidia does have a habit of acting like AMD doesn't exists, we will see in a week and a half
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    CraptacularOne
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    Re: So how long will Nvidia sit on the ADA inventory? 2022/12/03 15:25:41 (permalink)
    I don't think Nvidia is holding back RTX 4090s. It makes literally no sense for them to do so, they've been able to sell them almost as fast as they can make them. This is no benefit to flooding the market for them and possibly drive down cost. They are still regularly coming in and regularly selling out in a few minutes on sites like Newegg or Amazon. There were 4090s in stock just yesterday.
     
    Just look at the history here:
    https://www.nowinstock.net/computers/videocards/nvidia/rtx4090/full_history.php
     
    The 7900 series isn't the competitor to the 4090 anyway so it would make even less sense to flood the market if that's what your tin foil hat thinks. The reality is that a buyer at $900-$1000 isn't really a buyer at $1600 and up. That's quite a jump in cost, people that want a 4090 want a 4090, not a 7900XT or XTX. They aren't in competition.

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    arestavo
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    Re: So how long will Nvidia sit on the ADA inventory? 2022/12/03 15:33:22 (permalink)
    CraptacularOne
    I don't think Nvidia is holding back RTX 4090s. It makes literally no sense for them to do so, they've been able to sell them almost as fast as they can make them. This is no benefit to flooding the market for them and possibly drive down cost. They are still regularly coming in and regularly selling out in a few minutes on sites like Newegg or Amazon. There were 4090s in stock just yesterday.
     
    Just look at the history here:
    https://www.nowinstock.net/computers/videocards/nvidia/rtx4090/full_history.php
     
    The 7900 series isn't the competitor to the 4090 anyway so it would make even less sense to flood the market if that's what your tin foil hat thinks. The reality is that a buyer at $900-$1000 isn't really a buyer at $1600 and up. That's quite a jump in cost, people that want a 4090 want a 4090, not a 7900XT or XTX. They aren't in competition.


    I can chime in on this one - I want a 4090. But if I can get a 7900XTX (hopefully about 90% of the raster performance of the 4090) first at ~60% of the cost? I'm going to be happy with that. I'm too old to F5 war or go store to store looking for a stupid video card.
     
    EDIT: Of course, if EVGA was making video cards still it'd be a no brainer. Unless it was a RTX 4080 at $1200+ MSRP. That would always be a no from me, dog.
    post edited by arestavo - 2022/12/03 15:41:17
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    CraptacularOne
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    Re: So how long will Nvidia sit on the ADA inventory? 2022/12/03 20:59:48 (permalink)
    arestavo
    CraptacularOne
    I don't think Nvidia is holding back RTX 4090s. It makes literally no sense for them to do so, they've been able to sell them almost as fast as they can make them. This is no benefit to flooding the market for them and possibly drive down cost. They are still regularly coming in and regularly selling out in a few minutes on sites like Newegg or Amazon. There were 4090s in stock just yesterday.
     
    Just look at the history here:
    https://www.nowinstock.net/computers/videocards/nvidia/rtx4090/full_history.php
     
    The 7900 series isn't the competitor to the 4090 anyway so it would make even less sense to flood the market if that's what your tin foil hat thinks. The reality is that a buyer at $900-$1000 isn't really a buyer at $1600 and up. That's quite a jump in cost, people that want a 4090 want a 4090, not a 7900XT or XTX. They aren't in competition.


    I can chime in on this one - I want a 4090. But if I can get a 7900XTX (hopefully about 90% of the raster performance of the 4090) first at ~60% of the cost? I'm going to be happy with that. I'm too old to F5 war or go store to store looking for a stupid video card.
     
    EDIT: Of course, if EVGA was making video cards still it'd be a no brainer. Unless it was a RTX 4080 at $1200+ MSRP. That would always be a no from me, dog.


    That's wishful thinking. I doubt AMD is going to be within striking distance of the RTX 4090. If they were that close you can be sure AMD would be bliaring that from the rooftops. They purposefully targeted the RTX 4080 because they internally know they can compete at that performance level. 

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    MXHALOFAN
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    Re: So how long will Nvidia sit on the ADA inventory? 2022/12/03 21:18:17 (permalink)
    I got a 4090 today, a few came in at my local store and the had hush hush but my hookup got me one. I'm impressed with it. The 80 just didn't touch this card. Tho 80 is an amazing card, tho. I can't overclock this 4090 nearly like I could the 4080. At least so far. 


     
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    arestavo
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    Re: So how long will Nvidia sit on the ADA inventory? 2022/12/03 22:27:35 (permalink)
    CraptacularOne
     
    That's wishful thinking. I doubt AMD is going to be within striking distance of the RTX 4090. If they were that close you can be sure AMD would be bliaring that from the rooftops. They purposefully targeted the RTX 4080 because they internally know they can compete at that performance level. 


    We'll all see soon enough when the benchmarks come out. I may even find a 4090 for $1599 by then (now THAT is wishful thinking).
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    quadlatte
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    Re: So how long will Nvidia sit on the ADA inventory? 2022/12/04 17:39:12 (permalink)
    after sitting back and watching the goings on with nvidia over the last few years and how they treat their board partners i can say with certainty that nvidia cares only about that stock share price, they are 100% investor driven  so to think they care one bit about the consumer is naïve, I'm not saying this as fan of any brand, the last non nvidia card i bought was a ATI rage pro AIW so I'm no fan of AMD, but Nvidia really needs big ol slice of humble pie, ill probably be using my 1080Ti until it falls apart at this rate. 
     

                                   
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    redteamgo
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    Re: So how long will Nvidia sit on the ADA inventory? 2022/12/05 06:20:15 (permalink)
    CraptacularOne
    I don't think Nvidia is holding back RTX 4090s. It makes literally no sense for them to do so, they've been able to sell them almost as fast as they can make them. This is no benefit to flooding the market for them and possibly drive down cost. They are still regularly coming in and regularly selling out in a few minutes on sites like Newegg or Amazon. There were 4090s in stock just yesterday.
     
    Just look at the history here:
    https://www.nowinstock.net/computers/videocards/nvidia/rtx4090/full_history.php
     
    The 7900 series isn't the competitor to the 4090 anyway so it would make even less sense to flood the market if that's what your tin foil hat thinks. The reality is that a buyer at $900-$1000 isn't really a buyer at $1600 and up. That's quite a jump in cost, people that want a 4090 want a 4090, not a 7900XT or XTX. They aren't in competition.


    i think the thing here is that the 4090 should be $800 card and they will drag out artificial supply constraints until the moment before they can't anymore

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    TrekCZ
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    Re: So how long will Nvidia sit on the ADA inventory? 2022/12/05 06:40:14 (permalink)
    redteamgo
     
    i think the thing here is that the 4090 should be $800 card


    EVGA left GPU market, because they claimed that it is not profitable, that they loose money. Now 4nm process which is used for 4090 is probably much more expensive and there is inflation in other areas and you expect 4090 to go to 800 usd? Just reminder launch prices - 3090 msrp was 1500 usd, 3090 ti was 2000 usd (which are still prices on EVGA shop). We should be realistic here.
     
    #12
    dragomirc
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    Re: So how long will Nvidia sit on the ADA inventory? 2022/12/05 06:56:09 (permalink)
    redteamgo
     i think the thing here is that the 4090 should be $800 card 

    People get real with wishful thinking.
    See bellow how wafer prices go up as nodes shrink.


    The future for the three foundries is exciting and frightening at the same time. It also could be quite a profitable future as DigiTimes reports that TSMC plans on charging more than $20,000 for 3nm wafers. When the foundry moved from 7nm to 5nm, wafer pricing rose 60% from $10,000/wafer to $16,000/wafer. The higher wafer prices will lead manufacturers, paying more for the chips that they need for their products to work, hiking prices that consumers pay for devices.

    post edited by dragomirc - 2022/12/05 07:02:22
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    redteamgo
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    Re: So how long will Nvidia sit on the ADA inventory? 2022/12/05 07:01:45 (permalink)
    TrekCZ
    redteamgo
     
    i think the thing here is that the 4090 should be $800 card


    EVGA left GPU market, because they claimed that it is not profitable, that they loose money. Now 4nm process which is used for 4090 is probably much more expensive and there is inflation in other areas and you expect 4090 to go to 800 usd? Just reminder launch prices - 3090 msrp was 1500 usd, 3090 ti was 2000 usd (which are still prices on EVGA shop). We should be realistic here.
     


    nah.  evga's pricing woes is not a reflection of NVIDIA's margins or cost to produce.  just because AIB's have no leverage doesn't mean NVIDIA isn't making money hand over fist.  NVIDIA has actually grown margins and revenue simultaneously from their 2022 financials.  the wishful thinking lies in pretending that NVIDIA isnt gouging 

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    dragomirc
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    Re: So how long will Nvidia sit on the ADA inventory? 2022/12/05 07:09:11 (permalink)
    redteamgo
     
    nah.  evga's pricing woes is not a reflection of NVIDIA's margins or cost to produce.  just because AIB's have no leverage doesn't mean NVIDIA isn't making money hand over fist.  NVIDIA has actually grown margins and revenue simultaneously from their 2022 financials.  the wishful thinking lies in pretending that NVIDIA isnt gouging 

    Ammpere is 7nm and Ada 4nm.
    Think!
    #15
    redteamgo
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    Re: So how long will Nvidia sit on the ADA inventory? 2022/12/05 07:15:12 (permalink)
    i am thinking my friend.  i am thinking about how prime rate cost of capital has tripled in ~7 months and there is much more to go.  I am thinking about how the consumer is being punished hard across the world in every aspect of standard of living.  I am also thinking about how status quo is not a basis for projection on future margins at a very high level from the previous thoughts.  you see run rate, I see producer prices greatly diminished.  we'll see what happens.

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    ty_ger07
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    Re: So how long will Nvidia sit on the ADA inventory? 2022/12/05 08:00:35 (permalink)
    NVIDIA's profit margin is typically over 60%. For higher-end products, the profit margin typically increases. It's not surprising to think that the 4090 profit margin is 70 or 80% for NVIDIA.

    Wafer cost is not a big thing in the grand scheme of things.

    NVIDIA was squeezing the profit away from AIBs, but it's doing just fine.

    NVIDIA told us that they would artificially limit supply in order to maintain higher prices.
    #17
    TrekCZ
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    Re: So how long will Nvidia sit on the ADA inventory? 2022/12/05 12:44:48 (permalink)
    Nvidia net margin is not 60%, it is 20% and less as other companies. There is official discount 5% of 4000 cards in Europe, Nvidia can afford that, but not partners. If card will have to be cheaper due to AMD, partners will be at loss. Again and again this proves Evga prediction and decision.
    #18
    dragomirc
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    Re: So how long will Nvidia sit on the ADA inventory? 2022/12/05 13:41:06 (permalink)
    ty_ger07
    NVIDIA's profit margin is typically over 60%. For higher-end products, the profit margin typically increases. It's not surprising to think that the 4090 profit margin is 70 or 80% for NVIDIA.

    LOL, that profit margin is beyond science fiction.

    TrekCZ
    Nvidia net margin is not 60%, it is 20% and less as other companies. There is official discount 5% of 4000 cards in Europe, Nvidia can afford that, but not partners. If card will have to be cheaper due to AMD, partners will be at loss. Again and again this proves Evga prediction and decision.

    Europe VAT = 20% is hard to bear for any product.


    Last year EVGA peaked revenue to 87 million and had 280+ employees.
    Let's wait to see the numbers for this year.
     
    Smart and successful AIB CEO must calculate (based on previous years) number of products that will be sold before Nvidia eventually lower the prices.
    Now how 4090 can be loss for any AIB when demand is significantly higher than supply.
    Again and again, was proved that poor decision can bring to the knees once top brand company.
    #19
    kraade
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    Re: So how long will Nvidia sit on the ADA inventory? 2022/12/05 16:23:32 (permalink)
    I actually caught the ASUS STRIX 1999$ msrp 3 card restock today, Trying to put it in the cart was not really successful, if interested I suggest hit the buy it now button , I got one in the cart but it did not stay long, 2 K is WAY TOO MUCH, I can get one for that on ebay, but go ASUS, We are, without a doubt,  in an artificially created shortage by the trickling out of these cards to keep up the illusion of high demand.  
     
     
    #20
    kraade
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    Re: So how long will Nvidia sit on the ADA inventory? 2022/12/05 16:38:07 (permalink)
    dragomirc
    Ammpere is 7nm and Ada 4nm.
    Think!

     
    Ampere is Samsung 8nm and ADA is 5nm TSMC with a 4nm marketing sticker nomenclature...
     
    #21
    ty_ger07
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    Re: So how long will Nvidia sit on the ADA inventory? 2022/12/05 16:40:36 (permalink)
    #22
    redteamgo
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    Re: So how long will Nvidia sit on the ADA inventory? 2022/12/05 18:49:27 (permalink)
    It’s true. Nvidias gross margin blend is about 60%. Top end products have the highest margin almost universally. Pull their financials from the SEC Edgar database if you want to self validate. Make sure to read the parts about how their bulk sales to crypto miners cost them. You want to buy it? Buy it but have no illusions. $5.5m fine for billions in revenue.

    https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2022-79
    post edited by redteamgo - 2022/12/05 18:50:32

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    HeavyHemi
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    Re: So how long will Nvidia sit on the ADA inventory? 2022/12/05 19:16:22 (permalink)
    redteamgo
    It’s true. Nvidias gross margin blend is about 60%. Top end products have the highest margin almost universally. Pull their financials from the SEC Edgar database if you want to self validate. Make sure to read the parts about how their bulk sales to crypto miners cost them. You want to buy it? Buy it but have no illusions. $5.5m fine for billions in revenue.

    https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2022-79

    There was nothing about 'bulk sales' in their press release. What Nvidia did not disclose was specifically
     
    In two of its Forms 10-Q for its fiscal year 2018, NVIDIA reported material growth in revenue within its gaming business. NVIDIA had information, however, that this increase in gaming sales was driven in significant part by cryptomining. Despite this, NVIDIA did not disclose in its Forms 10-Q, as it was required to do, these significant earnings and cash flow fluctuations related to a volatile business for investors to ascertain the likelihood that past performance was indicative of future performance. The SEC’s order also finds that NVIDIA’s omissions of material information about the growth of its gaming business were misleading given that NVIDIA did make statements about how other parts of the company’s business were driven by demand for crypto, creating the impression that the company’s gaming business was not significantly affected by cryptomining.

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    #24
    redteamgo
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    Re: So how long will Nvidia sit on the ADA inventory? 2022/12/06 06:37:13 (permalink)
    sorry let me use their words:  investors were misled by material omissions which were definitely not bulk sales to crypto and definitely not causing significant distortion in gaming segment pricing

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    kraade
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    Re: So how long will Nvidia sit on the ADA inventory? 2022/12/06 11:09:53 (permalink)
    They are doing a good job, The S.I.s have 'em. Ebay inventory is about gone , and the remaining trickle looks like scalper returns . Lol.
    #26
    kraade
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    Re: So how long will Nvidia sit on the ADA inventory? 2022/12/06 16:17:28 (permalink)
    Darn Newegg got the available button stuck on for the MSI Suprim Liquid like for 3+ hours this afternoon , yes this was only a glitch....
    #27
    GTXJackBauer
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    Re: So how long will Nvidia sit on the ADA inventory? 2022/12/07 05:10:45 (permalink)
    kraade
     
    We are, without a doubt,  in an artificially created shortage by the trickling out of these cards to keep up the illusion of high demand.  
     



    100%  It's all on record.  Let's hope the MSRP collapses once Nvidia's favor from TSMC runs out. 

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    #28
    kougar
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    Re: So how long will Nvidia sit on the ADA inventory? 2022/12/07 15:44:11 (permalink)
    NVIDIA confirmed the stock rumor themselves. This was a week ago as reported by WCCFTECH:
     
    Colette Kress, NVIDIA's Chief Financial Officer, stated that they have been under-shipping GPUs in the gaming segment for some time. This was revealed during the Credit Suisse 26th Annual Tech conference.

     
    Dr Ian Cutress did a die-cost analysis on Zen 4, and if you take the data from that video it's easy to estimate die level Ada Lovelace costs on TSMC 4N. If we assume the same 0.07 defect density of N5 & same price per wafer then AD102 costs $255 per die. Even if we assume rumored 3N pricing of $20k per wafer (which seems unrealistic for 4N) it's around $300 per die unless TSMC has 4N yield problems nobody knows about. So that's a pretty easy ballpark of under $300 per die for a 4090, which itself is a harvested die with stuff disabled.


    Have water, will cool. 
    #29
    redteamgo
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    Re: So how long will Nvidia sit on the ADA inventory? 2022/12/08 05:00:14 (permalink)
    yes but you're forgetting the $1000 per unit of additional production cost to cover their G&A RSUs 

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    #30
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