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Cyrpto-currency Global Shortage - Questions

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nzkfc
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2017/06/29 22:11:47 (permalink)
Hey all,
 
Theres a global shortage for cards due to the surge in Ethereum mining, however I wanted to know, is the shortage due to the mass purchasing of these cards and was so sudden that stock ran out, whats the current situation with EVGA in terms of turning more cards out?
 
I know the next shipments are mid-july, but is this enough to cover pending orders as well as normal vendor stock?
 
Would be good to understand it from the inside on what the current play is.
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    Syzich
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    Re: Cyrpto-currency Global Shortage - Questions 2017/06/30 03:14:27 (permalink)
    I was about to comment that there weren't neccessarily shortages on the nVidia side, just price gouging. Apparently, that information is wrong. I just checked Newegg and Amazon. Even 1080s are out of stock. Hopefully, the planned third party cards designed for mining will help alleviate the shortages. I have a new build in mind that I want to get around to relatively soon-ish.
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    ty_ger07
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    Re: Cyrpto-currency Global Shortage - Questions 2017/06/30 06:51:44 (permalink)
    NVIDIA.com -> Buy Now. No third-party gouging there.

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    gravedigger78
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    Re: Cyrpto-currency Global Shortage - Questions 2017/06/30 08:16:44 (permalink)
    I thought the crypto-currency mining was more on AMD cards
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    Valtrius Malleus
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    Re: Cyrpto-currency Global Shortage - Questions 2017/06/30 08:34:08 (permalink)
    gravedigger78
    I thought the crypto-currency mining was more on AMD cards
    It is, but since they're all sold out the next (only?) alternative is NVIDIA.
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    GTXJackBauer
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    Re: Cyrpto-currency Global Shortage - Questions 2017/06/30 09:07:37 (permalink)
    Last I heard, Ethereum performed better with Nvidia GPUs.  Add the scalpers on top of that and yeah, you'll possibly get stock issues and having limited stock runs, doesn't help either.
     
    I believe I also heard that the GTX 1070 is the best bang for your buck and the sweet spot for this kind of mining.  

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    QuintLeo
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    Re: Cyrpto-currency Global Shortage - Questions 2017/06/30 11:15:32 (permalink)
    For Ethereum, the best price-performance was on the RX 470/480/570/580 cards 'till those cards got into GTX 1070 territory, at which point the GTX 1070's more-or-less equal performance to a high-end 480/580 card WHEN THOSE CARDS HAVE MODDED BIOS made the 1070 a comparable choice. Hash/watt on both sides of that is quite close, enough so that individual differences between cards could make as much of a difference as differences between the brands.
     
     The GTX 1060 can't match the hashrate of most of those cards, but it's fairly close to the bottom-end of the RX 470/570 range which started driving sales of the GTX 1060 when 470/570 prices got high enough - again, efficiency is competative.
     
     The GTX 1080 is NOT competative, the latency on GDDR 5X hurts it's ETH hashrate quite a bit, to the point it can't quite match a STOCK RX 480/580 and struggles to beat a bios-modded 470/570 - and it's not a lot higher than the 1060. At current pricing though it might be getting SOME interest just because it's AVAILABLE.
     The GTX 1080ti is higher hashrate, but not by a TON over a modded RX 480/580 - and so far the price has made it prohibitive for ETH mining.
     
     The kicker in the pack though is that ALL of those NVidia cards are very competative on a hash/$ basis EVEN AT MSRP vs AMD on mining ZCash and many other coins that have smaller market caps then Ethereum, so there is some demand from miners working those coins.
     ZCash in particular is likely to have a majority of NVidia cards working on it, as most recent AMD cards are more profitably when mining Ethereum (Tahiti based cards like the R9 280/280x and HD 7970/7950 are notable exceptions there).
     
     BALLPARK figures (these can vary quite a bit with specific GPU type, especially on how high you can clock the MEMORY - and I might be off a bit as these figures are from memory in many cases and a lot of them are based on "reported" figures):
     First figure on ETH is for a stock card, second for a BIOS-modded card. NVidia cards to date can't be BIOS modded.
     AMD cards with 8GB memory will usually be about 2 Mh/s faster then 4GB due to the 8GB cards using 8000 Mhz memory vs 6600 or 7000 on the 4GB cards.
     
     Card model           ETH hashrate    ZCash hashrate
     GTX 1060 6GB      22 Mh/s           300 sol/s
     RX 470/570 4GB   22-26 Mh/s      280 sol/s
     RX 480/580 4GB   24-28 MH/s      320 sol/s
     GTX 1070             30 Mh/s           420 sol/s
     GTX 1080             25 Mh/s           500 sol/s
     GTX 1080ti           35 MH/s           720 sol/s
     
     I'm not sure what the hashrates of the RX 460 are, but I'm pretty sure it's noticeably less than the GTX 1060 6GB.
     The GTX 1060 3GB does a good bit less on hashrates than the 6GB, but I don't remember any actual figures offhand.
     
     Note that current estimate for Ethereum is that there are over 2 MILLION GPUs mining it, the majority of those sold in the last 2-3 months and probably 60% more or less being AMD cards in that timeframe.
     Given that Ethereum network hashrate more than doubled in the last 3 months, that's over 1 MILLION cards sold to miners in less than 3 months for just Ethereum mining.
     I think I remember seeing an estimate somewhere that AMD's TOTAL production capacity is ballpark 4 million GPUs a quarter.
     
     Current estimate for ZCash is that there might be as many as 1 Million GPUs mining it but likely a good bit less due to the NVidia dominance there and the high sol/s on high-end NVidia cards.
     My best estimate for ALL OTHER GPU-mineable cryptocoins combined is less than 1 Million GPUs in use and more likely 500k ballpark.
     
     For perspective, if all of Team Curecoin on [link=mailto:Folding@Home]Folding@Home[/link] were strictly using GTX 1070 cards, we would have slightly less then 1000 cards working on Folding - and 5000 GTX 1070 would cover ALL of the PPD generated by [link=mailto:Folding@home]Folding@home[/link] participants in the last month.
     
     
     

    Now that vorsholk has stopped his abuse, I'm returning to folding.
     I no longer MOO due to abuses by certain "whales" in the Gridcoin community - so I now work the Distributed.net project directly again.
     
    #7
    chrism101
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    Re: Cyrpto-currency Global Shortage - Questions 2017/06/30 12:24:30 (permalink)
    QuintLeo
    For Ethereum, the best price-performance was on the RX 470/480/570/580 cards 'till those cards got into GTX 1070 territory, at which point the GTX 1070's more-or-less equal performance to a high-end 480/580 card WHEN THOSE CARDS HAVE MODDED BIOS made the 1070 a comparable choice. Hash/watt on both sides of that is quite close, enough so that individual differences between cards could make as much of a difference as differences between the brands.
     
     The GTX 1060 can't match the hashrate of most of those cards, but it's fairly close to the bottom-end of the RX 470/570 range which started driving sales of the GTX 1060 when 470/570 prices got high enough - again, efficiency is competative.
     
     The GTX 1080 is NOT competative, the latency on GDDR 5X hurts it's ETH hashrate quite a bit, to the point it can't quite match a STOCK RX 480/580 and struggles to beat a bios-modded 470/570 - and it's not a lot higher than the 1060. At current pricing though it might be getting SOME interest just because it's AVAILABLE.
     The GTX 1080ti is higher hashrate, but not by a TON over a modded RX 480/580 - and so far the price has made it prohibitive for ETH mining.
     
     The kicker in the pack though is that ALL of those NVidia cards are very competative on a hash/$ basis EVEN AT MSRP vs AMD on mining ZCash and many other coins that have smaller market caps then Ethereum, so there is some demand from miners working those coins.
     ZCash in particular is likely to have a majority of NVidia cards working on it, as most recent AMD cards are more profitably when mining Ethereum (Tahiti based cards like the R9 280/280x and HD 7970/7950 are notable exceptions there).
     
     BALLPARK figures (these can vary quite a bit with specific GPU type, especially on how high you can clock the MEMORY - and I might be off a bit as these figures are from memory in many cases and a lot of them are based on "reported" figures):
     First figure on ETH is for a stock card, second for a BIOS-modded card. NVidia cards to date can't be BIOS modded.
     AMD cards with 8GB memory will usually be about 2 Mh/s faster then 4GB due to the 8GB cards using 8000 Mhz memory vs 6600 or 7000 on the 4GB cards.
     
     Card model           ETH hashrate    ZCash hashrate
     GTX 1060 6GB      22 Mh/s           300 sol/s
     RX 470/570 4GB   22-26 Mh/s      280 sol/s
     RX 480/580 4GB   24-28 MH/s      320 sol/s
     GTX 1070             30 Mh/s           420 sol/s
     GTX 1080             25 Mh/s           500 sol/s
     GTX 1080ti           35 MH/s           720 sol/s
     
     I'm not sure what the hashrates of the RX 460 are, but I'm pretty sure it's noticeably less than the GTX 1060 6GB.
     The GTX 1060 3GB does a good bit less on hashrates than the 6GB, but I don't remember any actual figures offhand.
     
     Note that current estimate for Ethereum is that there are over 2 MILLION GPUs mining it, the majority of those sold in the last 2-3 months and probably 60% more or less being AMD cards in that timeframe.
     Given that Ethereum network hashrate more than doubled in the last 3 months, that's over 1 MILLION cards sold to miners in less than 3 months for just Ethereum mining.
     I think I remember seeing an estimate somewhere that AMD's TOTAL production capacity is ballpark 4 million GPUs a quarter.
     
     Current estimate for ZCash is that there might be as many as 1 Million GPUs mining it but likely a good bit less due to the NVidia dominance there and the high sol/s on high-end NVidia cards.
     My best estimate for ALL OTHER GPU-mineable cryptocoins combined is less than 1 Million GPUs in use and more likely 500k ballpark.
     
     For perspective, if all of Team Curecoin on [link=mailto:Folding@Home]Folding@Home[/link] were strictly using GTX 1070 cards, we would have slightly less then 1000 cards working on Folding - and 5000 GTX 1070 would cover ALL of the PPD generated by [link=mailto:Folding@home]Folding@home[/link] participants in the last month.
     
     
     




    What is the breakeven on these Ethereum coins? Way back when, I was headed to build something for Bitcoin but that was at the time the ASIC miners all came on line and were literally printing money and raising the difficulty far out of reach.
     


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    #8
    QuintLeo
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    Re: Cyrpto-currency Global Shortage - Questions 2017/06/30 18:32:18 (permalink)
    Like any cryptocoin, breakeven depends on a lot of factors.
     
     Right now, the only rig I have mining Ethereum runs 3 x R9 290 - which are high-performance cards on ETH, 28-29 Mhash/s under current conditions, but they eat a little over 300 watts each to achieve that - high overclock mitigated somewhat by useage of a modded BIOS from TheStilt that undervolts them a little and disables some of the video-specific parts of the card/GPU.
     
     At my current power cost (which is one of the 3 lowest "small business" all-up rates in the entire US), the entire rig eats a little less than $1.25 a day, but generates right at $10 a day - but that $10 depends on difficulty (which has been rising fairly rapidly the last 3 months), and the price (which jumped a TON 'till about a week back, then settled back down by a quarter - peak was near $400 but it's running right about $300 per coin at the moment).
     
     A GTX 1070 will manage the same to a little more hashrate, while using rough ballpark half the power, as will a BIOS-modded RX 480 8GB or RX 580 8GB (the 4GB versions of those cards use slower memory that can't clock as high, which drops their hashrate some).
     
     If current conditions continued, one those 3 modern cards would generate a gross intake of almost $3.50 a day and net a bit over $3.25 at my power cost - someone paying 10 cents/KWH would net more like $3/day while someone paying 25 cents/kwh (I think some parts of California are at or above that all-up cost) would net around $2.50/day
     
     However, folks keep adding more and more rigs, the total add seems to be limited by available GPU supply of the "good mining cards" after factoring in the "competition to get the cards" vs. everyone else trying to buy the same models for gaming and other usages. Ethereum difficulty has more than doubled in the last month due mostly to this factor, which means at the same price your gross income is half for the same hashrate.
     
    Ethereum has some factors specific to it as well that are reducing profitability - the developers implimented something called "Ice Age" that is increasing the time between blocks that can be mined and therefore drops the number of coins AVAILABLE to be mined in a day. They also have announced plans to move Ethereum to a Proof of Stake model in multiple stages on a "phased-in" plan, with the first stage targeted for the end of this year - but they've been talking a move to PoS for quite a while now and their previous plans have been postponed a few times, no clue if that will happen again or not and nothing announced on how long or how many "stages" they plan to go through before they end up at 100% PoS. The first stage was announced to be 1% PoS 99% Proof of Work (PoW is the current method) which will have almost no effect on miners, but later stages will drop profitability noticeably, and the final move to 100% PoS will kill ALL mining for Ethereum.
     
     

    Now that vorsholk has stopped his abuse, I'm returning to folding.
     I no longer MOO due to abuses by certain "whales" in the Gridcoin community - so I now work the Distributed.net project directly again.
     
    #9
    Hoggle
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    Re: Cyrpto-currency Global Shortage - Questions 2017/06/30 19:18:29 (permalink)
    QuintLeo
    Like any cryptocoin, breakeven depends on a lot of factors.
     
     Right now, the only rig I have mining Ethereum runs 3 x R9 290 - which are high-performance cards on ETH, 28-29 Mhash/s under current conditions, but they eat a little over 300 watts each to achieve that - high overclock mitigated somewhat by useage of a modded BIOS from TheStilt that undervolts them a little and disables some of the video-specific parts of the card/GPU.
     
     At my current power cost (which is one of the 3 lowest "small business" all-up rates in the entire US), the entire rig eats a little less than $1.25 a day, but generates right at $10 a day - but that $10 depends on difficulty (which has been rising fairly rapidly the last 3 months), and the price (which jumped a TON 'till about a week back, then settled back down by a quarter - peak was near $400 but it's running right about $300 per coin at the moment).
     
     A GTX 1070 will manage the same to a little more hashrate, while using rough ballpark half the power, as will a BIOS-modded RX 480 8GB or RX 580 8GB (the 4GB versions of those cards use slower memory that can't clock as high, which drops their hashrate some).
     
     If current conditions continued, one those 3 modern cards would generate a gross intake of almost $3.50 a day and net a bit over $3.25 at my power cost - someone paying 10 cents/KWH would net more like $3/day while someone paying 25 cents/kwh (I think some parts of California are at or above that all-up cost) would net around $2.50/day
     
     However, folks keep adding more and more rigs, the total add seems to be limited by available GPU supply of the "good mining cards" after factoring in the "competition to get the cards" vs. everyone else trying to buy the same models for gaming and other usages. Ethereum difficulty has more than doubled in the last month due mostly to this factor, which means at the same price your gross income is half for the same hashrate.
     
    Ethereum has some factors specific to it as well that are reducing profitability - the developers implimented something called "Ice Age" that is increasing the time between blocks that can be mined and therefore drops the number of coins AVAILABLE to be mined in a day. They also have announced plans to move Ethereum to a Proof of Stake model in multiple stages on a "phased-in" plan, with the first stage targeted for the end of this year - but they've been talking a move to PoS for quite a while now and their previous plans have been postponed a few times, no clue if that will happen again or not and nothing announced on how long or how many "stages" they plan to go through before they end up at 100% PoS. The first stage was announced to be 1% PoS 99% Proof of Work (PoW is the current method) which will have almost no effect on miners, but later stages will drop profitability noticeably, and the final move to 100% PoS will kill ALL mining for Ethereum.
     
     




    I would kind of wonder what happens in a month or two then if the rate of return has dropped 50% over the last month and people continue to add new systems to mine.

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    #10
    QuintLeo
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    Re: Cyrpto-currency Global Shortage - Questions 2017/06/30 20:46:12 (permalink)
    I suspect that if Ethereum pricing stays stable, the rate of system additions will start dropping off noticeably in about 2 perhaps 3 months.
    Way too many of the Big Farms run on Very Very Cheap Electric, and that's where the bulk of the hashrate is growing from.
     
     

    Now that vorsholk has stopped his abuse, I'm returning to folding.
     I no longer MOO due to abuses by certain "whales" in the Gridcoin community - so I now work the Distributed.net project directly again.
     
    #11
    nzkfc
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    Re: Cyrpto-currency Global Shortage - Questions 2017/07/02 16:39:39 (permalink)
    Yeah there is a global shortage of 1070 cards (as well as all the other 10 series) and even some motherboards and CPU's.
     
    I'm just wanting to know if the 2month ETA is going to be just to cover vendors/resellers orders or if it's more then that.
    #12
    Ranmacanada
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    Re: Cyrpto-currency Global Shortage - Questions 2017/07/02 17:00:06 (permalink)
    I posted a nice breakdown in one of the other threads.  https://forums.evga.com/FindPost/2689233  Then I also replied afterwards with more details.  Basically rewards are dropping by about 50% every 26 days or so currently, and that is not taking into account market flucuations in coin prices.  So if you make 1 Eth per month now, you'll make 0.5 in 26 days, in 52 days 0.25 in 78 days 0.125.  That is only if the current trend of growth continues. 
     

     

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    #13
    nzkfc
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    Re: Cyrpto-currency Global Shortage - Questions 2017/07/03 17:27:07 (permalink)
    Well pretty much everyone is making this thread about what works and what doesn't, I don't need that info, i've spent years on crypto and our farm is totally fine. What i'm more interested in is my original point.
     
    As for your "calculations" Ranmacanda, they don't match anything we've experienced as your theory is based on a particular scenario being true, we've only experienced increases and any drops during the week are recovered during the weekends and we've made nothing but profit, however we're not in this to make money, we've got money to spend and are enjoying the fun of it all.
     
    It's the people who run 6-12 small time miners that need to worry, especially with power pricing. But when your running 300+ card farms on commercial cost power it's nothing but smooth profit for now.
    #14
    Ranmacanada
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    Re: Cyrpto-currency Global Shortage - Questions 2017/07/03 19:18:14 (permalink)
    They are not my calculations for ETH and they are not wrong as the difficulty for ETH and other alt coins has exploded and returns have dropped significantly.  In fact all crypto has dropped significantly and will impact anyone who isn't running a farm.
     
    As for the situation with EVGA and their card turn out, you won't get any answer for that here at all.  No one from corporate supply posts here, or will ever post here.  This is forum is mainly for users, nothing more.  All we can tell you is everyone and their dog has jumped into mining to the point that 1060's and 1070's are selling for far more than launch price and that they are now limited to usually 1 per customer.  In fact 1070's usually sell for more than a 1080 these days, if you're dumb enough to buy one at that price.

     

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