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LockedHot!A Second Wave of COVID-19 in September According to the Media?

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boylerya
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2020/06/15 18:54:54 (permalink)
Fake news!  Another surge has recently started from the protesting and reopening of society in certain areas.  This increased rate of infection will continue for about 30 days before the virus will start to weaken and become less virulent at a very slow rate resulting in the rate of infection changing back towards a downward trend as we were seeing with the effects of social distancing and lock downs, but still linger until roughly about the end of the year.  
 
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post edited by boylerya - 2020/06/16 13:42:32

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    Grey_Beard
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    Re: A Second Surge of COVID-19 in September According to the Media? 2020/06/15 19:53:26 (permalink)
    No, another surge has not started yet. This activity is still the first wave. Since you at Rutgers, you hate access to some resources who have detailed knowledge on this subject. The only place that did a good job on the first wave is NY, as they are just now coming out of the lockdown, but given the rest of the country’s response, they still need to be very cautious.

    Only tools we have against this virus is identification, testing, isolation of positive results and contact tracing. This is the same things we did 500 years ago.


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    Chaos_21
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    Re: A Second Surge of COVID-19 in September According to the Media? 2020/06/15 19:57:46 (permalink)
    Just try to safe and use some common sense when in public and you should be fine. 

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    Re: A Second Surge of COVID-19 in September According to the Media? 2020/06/15 21:14:24 (permalink)
     
    New York contact tracers will ask people who have tested positive for COVID-19 about their living situations as well as general questions about contacts. They have been told not to ask about participation in protests unless those being questioned mention them.

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    boylerya
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    Re: A Second Surge of COVID-19 in September According to the Media? 2020/06/16 00:21:26 (permalink)

    United We Stand...Six Feet Apart.
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    z999z3mystorys
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    Re: A Second Surge of COVID-19 in September According to the Media? 2020/06/16 04:51:05 (permalink)
    Easing restrictions and having the number of new cases per day go up isn't unexpected, but I can't see I'd label that as a second wave. It's need to go down steadily for awhile before I'd think that a first wave is over.
     
    Also I'm falling a bit short of fully understanding the joke of calling your own statement (as you cited yourself) fake news. Though maybe it has more to do with critiquing the new rather than anything related to the virus?


     
     
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    Hoggle
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    Re: A Second Surge of COVID-19 in September According to the Media? 2020/06/16 04:51:05 (permalink)
    Doesn't all contact tracing just always lead back to Kevin Bacon in just 6 steps? Honestly we all have so much contact with each other that we are six degrees away from one another. That is why you should do what you can to reduce the risk of the spread. Keep in mind every day hundreds of people within 100 miles of you probably caught the virus as we are still seeing states with new cases in the hundreds a day.

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    Re: A Second Surge of COVID-19 in September According to the Media? 2020/06/16 05:27:32 (permalink)
    There's not such thing as safety. Eventually everyone will be infected🙄 if not now.later

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    boylerya
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    Re: A Second Surge of COVID-19 in September According to the Media? 2020/06/16 13:51:56 (permalink)
    z999z3mystorys
    Easing restrictions and having the number of new cases per day go up isn't unexpected, but I can't see I'd label that as a second wave. It's need to go down steadily for awhile before I'd think that a first wave is over.
     
    Also I'm falling a bit short of fully understanding the joke of calling your own statement (as you cited yourself) fake news. Though maybe it has more to do with critiquing the new rather than anything related to the virus?


    Well I did screw up with my title by referring to the second wave as a surge, I have fixed that and changed it to wave.  Nice catch.  But that statement by the media is what I am calling fake news relative to occurring in the USA.  And cases need to be relatively nonexistent to consider the first wave to be over.  My statement is that we are in a surge that recently started, and after this surge it will be an overall downward trend to about the end of the year due to the weakening of the virus as it is programmed in its RNA to do so.  In fact the weakening may have started already, but not enough to make any significant difference.  It will be a slow process spanning out to the end of this year.

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    Re: A Second Surge of COVID-19 in September According to the Media? 2020/06/16 14:16:16 (permalink)
    The media and social needs to give it a rest and get a day job! Proper hygiene, stay ur butt at home if ya got a fever, and avoid large groups/gatherings....

    This country has screwed our economy hard enough, enough with the stupid being aloud to breed....

     
     
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    Re: A Second Surge of COVID-19 in September According to the Media? 2020/06/16 14:28:05 (permalink)
    mask up when you are in stores or around a lot of people. use shop from home resources. remember the 6-foot rule wash your hands simple. 

     
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    Re: A Second Surge of COVID-19 in September According to the Media? 2020/06/22 00:18:52 (permalink)

    United We Stand...Six Feet Apart.
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    Re: A Second Surge of COVID-19 in September According to the Media? 2020/06/22 04:16:38 (permalink)
     
    From several friends and family members who are doctors and some nurses heavily involved in the front lines on Covid19, yes a 2nd wave is expected, but this isn't it yet... although they definitely expect one, and hospitals in NYC are gearing up for it. Historically, the 2nd wave is usually significantly worse than the initial wave. The concern at the moment is that the onset of summer may not be decreasing the prevalence as many hoped it would. As to mortality rates, it will depend on how much the virus has mutated in different locations - some areas appear to have weaker strains, some more lethal and virulent strains. Also important is the availability of effective treatment(s), one of the strong hopefuls being Remdesivir which currently has emergency use status from FDA, but not full approval yet. Many countries have approved it for use against Covid19 already, but FDA is seen as the gold standard.
     
    post edited by Nereus - 2020/06/22 04:18:26

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    Hoggle
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    Re: A Second Surge of COVID-19 in September According to the Media? 2020/06/22 04:36:24 (permalink)
    Two things we don't know yet is how long does antibodies last in the human body. It could be that people are able to catch it again in only a very short amount of time after they originally catch it which would make a vaccine pointless. The other thing we don't know is if mosquitoes can pass the virus onto others. So far the areas seeing a surge could be people not taking proper care to prevent the spread but the panhandle is also an area with a lot of mosquitoes. 

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    Re: A Second Surge of COVID-19 in September According to the Media? 2020/06/22 05:03:31 (permalink)
    Herd immunity. Let it happen. I don't want to live in a fearful society for another year. Get it over with. It's too late to stamp it out. Everyone who is going to get it, is going to get it eventually. I don't want a massive outbreak, but I don't want a long whimpering nuisance either. The Sweden approach interests me. It's too early to tell, but it seems that the virus in Sweden's society may be close to its peak.
    post edited by ty_ger07 - 2020/06/22 05:29:45
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    boylerya
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    Re: A Second Surge of COVID-19 in September According to the Media? 2020/06/22 09:56:44 (permalink)
    boylerya
     
    https://nypost.com/2020/06/21/coronavirus-is-weakening-could-disappear-on-its-own-italian-doctor/
     


    Since the virus is weakening as I said it would, and now other scientists are noticing the same; there will not be a 2nd wave.  Confirming my initial statement when I started this thread.

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    boylerya
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    Re: A Second Surge of COVID-19 in September According to the Media? 2020/06/22 10:04:58 (permalink)
    Hoggle
    Two things we don't know yet is how long does antibodies last in the human body. It could be that people are able to catch it again in only a very short amount of time after they originally catch it which would make a vaccine pointless. The other thing we don't know is if mosquitoes can pass the virus onto others. So far the areas seeing a surge could be people not taking proper care to prevent the spread but the panhandle is also an area with a lot of mosquitoes. 


    Mosquitoes do not pass the virus through blood contact from one person to the next, but bugs in general coming in physical contact with the virus can spread it from one person to the next.  Either by landing in saliva or feces that may be on a person or surface; really anything that may have those on it since that is what the virus is known to be in.  If somehow the virus was on a surface without saliva or feces it would die much quicker, which I really doubt you would find it without it being in saliva or feces.  

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    boylerya
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    Re: A Second Surge of COVID-19 in September According to the Media? 2020/06/22 10:25:09 (permalink)
    I also estimate through forecasting in the trend of this virus that we will hit 4.5 to 5.5 mil confirmed cases by the time this pandemic comes to a complete end in the USA.
    post edited by boylerya - 2020/06/30 20:08:41

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    Re: A Second Surge of COVID-19 in September According to the Media? 2020/06/22 10:41:08 (permalink)
    ty_ger07
    Herd immunity. Let it happen. I don't want to live in a fearful society for another year. Get it over with. It's too late to stamp it out. Everyone who is going to get it, is going to get it eventually. I don't want a massive outbreak, but I don't want a long whimpering nuisance either. The Sweden approach interests me. It's too early to tell, but it seems that the virus in Sweden's society may be close to its peak.



    +1  

    Those that think they're catching it again is a different strain.  You can't catch the same strain once your body becomes immune to it.

    At this point they could name the next thing w/e they want but this surely doesn't feel authentic to me.  Virus is real but the reaction and lockdowns were something outside of this universe or as some say, deliberate for an agenda.
     
    I won't be getting more specific on what I'm saying but some will understand while respectfully staying within the forum's guidelines.

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    Nereus
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    Re: A Second Surge of COVID-19 in September According to the Media? 2020/06/22 11:36:07 (permalink)
    boylerya
    boylerya
    https://nypost.com/2020/06/21/coronavirus-is-weakening-could-disappear-on-its-own-italian-doctor/

    Since the virus is weakening as I said it would, and now other scientists are noticing the same; there will not be a 2nd wave.  Confirming my initial statement when I started this thread.

    lol you're quoting yourself.. and as much as I hope you are correct that there isn't a 2nd wave, one doctor in Italy saying it might disappear on its own versus literally thousands if not tens of thousands of medical experts who do expect a 2nd wave, along with the renewed spikes we're seeing in a number of areas right now.. well that argues different. Here's hoping you and that Italian doctor are correct though.
     

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    boylerya
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    Re: A Second Surge of COVID-19 in September According to the Media? 2020/06/23 03:25:14 (permalink)
    Nereus
    boylerya
    boylerya
    https://nypost.com/2020/06/21/coronavirus-is-weakening-could-disappear-on-its-own-italian-doctor/

    Since the virus is weakening as I said it would, and now other scientists are noticing the same; there will not be a 2nd wave.  Confirming my initial statement when I started this thread.

    lol you're quoting yourself.. and as much as I hope you are correct that there isn't a 2nd wave, one doctor in Italy saying it might disappear on its own versus literally thousands if not tens of thousands of medical experts who do expect a 2nd wave, along with the renewed spikes we're seeing in a number of areas right now.. well that argues different. Here's hoping you and that Italian doctor are correct though.
     


    I was making certain that the link was not overlooked.
     
    A second wave is the return of the virus after the virus has been nearly or completely wiped out (poorly defined between experts siding with nearly or complete), which a few countries are experiencing right now while others are experiencing it as a surge due to the virus entering from outside the country.  The cause for a surge or a new wave can be identical since the only difference is the status of the country experiencing it relative to the number of existing coronavirus cases.  We are experiencing a surge during the first wave, that if this matter had been controlled better, it could have been considered a second wave if the virus was nearly wiped out; but the protests and halting the lockdowns in certain areas allowed it to take hold again.  By the time we nearly or completely get rid of the coronavirus in the USA, the virus will have weakened so much that it will be at the point of not being as contagious or causing severe symptoms in healthy individuals.  The weakening so far is minor, resulting in a reduction of the severity of symptoms caused by it.  It needs more time, as the process of getting past the first wave also requires; which I am declaring that the time it will take to get past this first wave will extend past the time it will take for the virus to weaken to a point in which it will not be a threat and capable of causing a second wave.  Any possible increase prior to then, such as September as the supposed tens of thousands of experts are predicting, will be in the form of a surge that will not reach the severity from April until now using a 10-day average of confirmed cases.  In the end, I highly doubt there will be any significant surges as late as September, and perhaps the media will try to sell it as a second wave if a small increase were to occur.  But with the coronavirus cases currently on the rise to certainly reach a new record high (according to my forecast), there will be quite some time for the rate of spread to decrease down to the single digits per day using a 10-day average in order to be considered past the first wave as the upper limit; although perhaps a scientific consensus might accept double digits of confirmed coronavirus cases per day as the upper limit for officially ending the first wave.  Either way, the USA has had this ongoing for over 3 months, and it will take at least that long to end the first wave, which will put it past September.  

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    Hoggle
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    Re: A Second Surge of COVID-19 in September According to the Media? 2020/06/23 04:51:06 (permalink)
    The other thing a lot of people are avoiding is that even if it's not as fatal it's still going to go through a business and get the staff sick. Imagine what happens to a company when 25% of the staff comes down with a virus for two weeks. Productivity is going to suffer for them as effectively the business is crippled. A lot of this could have been prevented if we had nation wide guidelines for shelter in place and mask use.
     
    Guess the best thing to do is still be safe and wear a mask in public and avoid unneeded outings and public gatherings.

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    Re: A Second Surge of COVID-19 in September According to the Media? 2020/06/23 05:34:49 (permalink)
    Hoggle
    A lot of this could have been prevented if we had nation wide guidelines for shelter in place and mask use.
    Guess the best thing to do is still be safe and wear a mask in public and avoid unneeded outings and public gatherings.

    Even when we did, thousands of people ignored it completely. Remember this:
    https://www.huffpost.com/entry/usns-comfort-nyc-coronavirus-stay-home_n_5e82480cc5b6d38d98a2eff2
     

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    Re: A Second Surge of COVID-19 in September According to the Media? 2020/06/23 11:11:42 (permalink)


    People are, well, only Human. We know that. The rule of law is borne out in identifying, condemning, and punishing those who violate the standards on which we all agree. This is exactly what we do in america. -James Inhofe
     
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    Re: A Second Surge of COVID-19 in September According to the Media? 2020/06/23 13:25:49 (permalink)
     
     ^ indeed.
     

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    Re: A Second Surge of COVID-19 in September According to the Media? 2020/06/23 14:26:57 (permalink)
    Hoggle
    The other thing a lot of people are avoiding is that even if it's not as fatal it's still going to go through a business and get the staff sick. Imagine what happens to a company when 25% of the staff comes down with a virus for two weeks. Productivity is going to suffer for them as effectively the business is crippled. A lot of this could have been prevented if we had nation wide guidelines for shelter in place and mask use.
     
    Guess the best thing to do is still be safe and wear a mask in public and avoid unneeded outings and public gatherings.


    Ya it seems to happen every year as the common cold.  Eventually COVID-19 will weaken to the point to where more people that get it have a higher probability of being asymptomatic or have common cold-like symptoms.
    "Common human coronaviruses, including types 229E, NL63, OC43, and HKU1, usually cause mild to moderate upper-respiratory tract illnesses, like the common cold."
    https://www.cdc.gov/coron...neral-information.html

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    #26
    kougar
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    Re: A Second Surge of COVID-19 in September According to the Media? 2020/06/24 20:29:31 (permalink)
    ty_ger07
    Herd immunity. Let it happen. I don't want to live in a fearful society for another year. Get it over with. It's too late to stamp it out. Everyone who is going to get it, is going to get it eventually. I don't want a massive outbreak, but I don't want a long whimpering nuisance either. The Sweden approach interests me. It's too early to tell, but it seems that the virus in Sweden's society may be close to its peak.



    The problem is "flattening the curve", because we have limited hospital capacity to just rush headlong into forcing herd immunity.
     
    Case in point, Arizona has 200 ICU beds available out of 1,472 for the entire state. They expect to run out of beds in under two weeks. Texas Med Center  started today with 97% ICU capacity full. Their website has now changed, they expect to run out of ICU capacity tomorrow and are trying to add additional ICU beds but only expect to sustain THAT for 12 days until they are out entirely. 
     
    The US today posted it's highest ever number +39,103 new cases by Worldometer's site. Not to be outdone, Brazil was +40,995 today. When (not if) our nation runs out of ICU beds the CFR is going to climb significantly beyond 1% just as it did in italy months ago.
     
    There is a roughly 1-2 week delay between infection counts and hospitalization counts, so even if we stopped infection rates now it's already too late to prevent some states from running out of ICU beds.
    post edited by kougar - 2020/06/24 20:31:01


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    #27
    boylerya
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    Re: A Second Surge of COVID-19 in September According to the Media? 2020/06/25 23:39:09 (permalink)
    Today is a record high in the USA of confirmed coronavirus cases.
    6/25: 39,972
    #2 is now on 4/24: 36,291
    That is very alarming and concerning to see that big of a jump with the possibility of the situation continuing to worsen.

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    #28
    rcoev6
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    Re: A Second Surge of COVID-19 in September According to the Media? 2020/06/26 07:04:35 (permalink)
    Maybe the increase in cases is because we are testing many more people daily than we were 2 months ago.
     
    CDC stated today they estimate for every recorded case there are most likely 10 that go unreported.  That puts the number of total infected close to 20 million.  This would really drop the fatality rate closer to that of the normal flu.
     
     

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    #29
    bill1024
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    Re: A Second Surge of COVID-19 in September According to the Media? 2020/06/26 08:11:57 (permalink)
    Sure, with more testing you will find the people that are not having severe symptoms or no symptoms at all.
    But there is a big increase in people being admitted to the hospital.  Those testing or not are people getting really sick.
    Finding those who are not showing, or have minor symptoms is important so they can isolate and trace their contacts.
    Stopping testing is not going to stop this virus from spreading.
    Please put on a mask when you're going to be near other people and can not maintain a distance.
    Best quote from one Dr. that was on the news.
    "If you think wearing a mask is uncomfortable and does not look cool.
    How comfortable and cool looking will wearing a ventilator be..." 
     

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    #30
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