I think texinga was on to something, that it's not total population but population of folders in a given geography. However, I'd go a step further and say it's not just the population of folders but also the distribution of production of those folders. For example, if a "time zone" contained only brilong at 16 million PPD alone, it doesn't really matter how many other folders are in that time zone.
There are really only 2 possibilities here: either an unbalanced competition based on some attribute of each person (whether it's time zone, latitude, longitude, birthday, last digit of phone number or postal code, etc), or a "balanced" competition that again groups people by some attribute but then attempts to balance things somehow.
The current TZC is a hybrid of the 2: there weren't enough non-North-American folders to balance out EST, so it was a given that EST would stand alone and win. The "extras" were allocated between Pacific and Mountain to at least balance those out. However, this competition has been the most dramatic demonstration ever of how "balancing" fails.
Balancing only works if people are accurate with their production estimates. Hence the registration rule:
- All information must be reported as accurately as possible during registration.
When the information isn't accurate, balancing won't work. In previous competitions we have put caps on production for "overachievers", but even that won't really work, because then the winning team is the one where the most members come closest to the cap (thus rewarding the team with the most sandbaggers).
I think we should abandon the notion of balanced competitions for good, and come up with some other way of assigning people that gives us a reasonably even distribution and "let the chips fall where they may" as texinga said, or come up with some other way of picking a winner.