Punchy
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Re:Chimp Challenge 2012
2012/02/26 06:48:14
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zodac So to avoid HP's influence, any period would need to be before January. So what's wrong with Oct-Nov? It's usually the best period for most teams (except OCAU, since it's summer for them). It's the most recent timeframe we're able to use (unless you wanna go halfway into Jan, since HPCS only came into play towards the end of the month), and I don't believe a 2 week period is long enough to get any meaningful information. Either you're joking or there is some implicit assumption in your statement that HPCS will be over by CC. You want to reward HPCS abuse by NOT including it in a team's base period? Unless someone has knowledge as to when free HPCS usage will be terminated, it's impossible to adjust for it. That's why I repeat my statement that the CC cannot be run when free HPCS is active.
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Xavier Zepherious
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Re:Chimp Challenge 2012
2012/02/26 06:49:07
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LOL  I fixed them punchy
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Xavier Zepherious
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Re:Chimp Challenge 2012
2012/02/26 06:54:57
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not to mention HPCS is not allowing new users to use HPCS for folding right now - only user that have already got it can fold they want any new users to use HPCS in different ways to test the system so early adopters got the advantage...teams that learned and jumped on (well orgainized) beat out teams that aren't (like smaller or less organized) and it is also quit possible that free beta HPCS will end prior to CC and any team with baseline(handicap) based on those values could be hurt (those that capitalized more)
post edited by Xavier Zepherious - 2012/02/26 06:56:24
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zodac
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Re:Chimp Challenge 2012
2012/02/26 07:32:22
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There are still issues with using HPCS-enabled months. From tomorrow, all 8c systems will be banned, and the PPD will drop substantially. For those teams who do use HPCS (and no, I'm not denying OCN are one of them), that will put us at a huge disadvantage by the CC comes around, regardless of whether HPCS is still active or not.
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Punchy
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Re:Chimp Challenge 2012
2012/02/26 08:30:14
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zodac From tomorrow, all 8c systems will be banned, and the PPD will drop substantially. However, they have also stated that when the "public beta" starts, limits will increase again. So, we really don't know what will happen with points going up or down. I think we should have a team vote to say whether or not we will participate if HP Cloud Services are available at the time of the CC.
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zodac
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Re:Chimp Challenge 2012
2012/02/26 08:49:05
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Well, I think honestly, delaying it isn't really much of an option. It's already just into the summer to make things difficult for people. With no-one knowing just what will happen with HPCS, it's quite difficult to make a decision... :/
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Punchy
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Re:Chimp Challenge 2012
2012/02/26 09:13:41
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zodac With no-one knowing just what will happen with HPCS, it's quite difficult to make a decision... :/ I agree - but at the same time, do we want to go into the CC knowing in advance that it will be unfair to some set of teams specifically due to unknowns with HPCS?
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Punchy
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Re:Chimp Challenge 2012
2012/02/26 09:32:23
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Okay, I'm just going to throw out another idea. I think it's pretty clear that there is no way to create a handicap system of any sort that is fair to all sizes and shapes of teams. Why not acknowledge that and put some degree of randomness into the outcome? Sort of like the points lotto mentioned earlier, but not totally random, so teams can influence the outcome to some degree. There seem to be a number of "categories" tossed about: Total Points (note: directly benefits Stanford) Total WU (note: directly benefits Stanford) Production Increase - Handicap System (note: less directly benefits Stanford, depending on team size) Conversion Percent (note: no benefit to Stanford) What if we award "tickets" in each category at the end (so if there are 10 teams, the top total points team gets 10 "tickets", the bottom one gets 1 "ticket", top WU team gets 10 tickets, etc etc). Then all the "tickets" are tossed in a hat and the winner and runner-up are drawn. So, you can influence the outcome by placing as high as possible in each category to get the most "tickets" in the lottery, but you're still not guaranteed the Jaded Monkey. This randomness somewhat alleviates the fact that no matter what formula you come up with, it will be biased towards certain teams, partially due to unknowns that may not even be apparent until after the contest begins and so can never be fairly compensated for.
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Re:Chimp Challenge 2012
2012/02/26 09:56:59
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Punchy Okay, I'm just going to throw out another idea. I think it's pretty clear that there is no way to create a handicap system of any sort that is fair to all sizes and shapes of teams. Why not acknowledge that and put some degree of randomness into the outcome? Sort of like the points lotto mentioned earlier, but not totally random, so teams can influence the outcome to some degree. There seem to be a number of "categories" tossed about: Total Points (note: directly benefits Stanford) Total WU (note: directly benefits Stanford) Production Increase - Handicap System (note: less directly benefits Stanford, depending on team size) Conversion Percent (note: no benefit to Stanford) What if we award "tickets" in each category at the end (so if there are 10 teams, the top total points team gets 10 "tickets", the bottom one gets 1 "ticket", top WU team gets 10 tickets, etc etc). Then all the "tickets" are tossed in a hat and the winner and runner-up are drawn. So, you can influence the outcome by placing as high as possible in each category to get the most "tickets" in the lottery, but you're still not guaranteed the Jaded Monkey. This randomness somewhat alleviates the fact that no matter what formula you come up with, it will be biased towards certain teams, partially due to unknowns that may not even be apparent until after the contest begins and so can never be fairly compensated for. That's actually not a bad idea. Good thinking Punchy!
i7 930 OC 4.21 EVGA E758 GSkill 12GB Evga GTX 780 SC 2x Kingston 240 Raid 0 2x Seagate 4TB
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Xavier Zepherious
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Re:Chimp Challenge 2012
2012/02/26 10:07:02
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it's novel it allows all the formulas we wish to use it allows us to collect the data and then use it in next years to better approximate the contest so..is this sellable to all the teams having different categories and formula - earn tickets from each and those tickets used in lottery I like it - because we won't know who won until after it's all over and the draw is completed
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pgmoney
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Re:Chimp Challenge 2012
2012/02/26 10:07:55
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zodac
If we agree that I'm right, we can stop and go relax instead. ^_^
see this one post says all there is to know about your objective here, and I agre with punchy it can't be run with HPCS. being a former co-captain and the only year evga won the CC let me say if your going to do a formula aka "the folding special olympics" then this is what you need to do. 1. everyone knows including zodac EVGA and OCN are top dogs in this race from jump, and so the big adv is not what it once was, aLso HPCS plays a big factor in this. because the points are not the same as last year, and last years formula was clearly a slap in the face of EVGA by other team captains, including the I am always right person here. (the end results last year showed this) either the race needs to be rescheduled thanks to stanford messing with the system of points, nothing new there. or yo just take last years end of chimp challenge points for the top 3 teams divide it in half (to remove big adv points mostly) the top 3 ppd teams from last year start negative half what they finished with last year. and the rest of the teams start at zero and all teams race to 20 million again the way it was when this CC was a success. so lets say ocn had a total of 20 million points last year and evga had 30 million points at end of competiton then those 2 teams start 10 million and 15 million in the hole. but honestly like punchy is saying I agree and I think this will need to be rescheduled for all teams to be fair sadly. However the special olympics that the team captains created last year was an embaresment to the whole history of the Chimp Challenge IMHO. My only point is this, make sure you "ALL" get it right this time around and quit over thinking this CC race!!! If the captains do not come up with a way to make it fair and close for all teams, the CC will sadly come to a end as many teams will not be slapped in the face twice and come back to talk about it. So instead of trying to be right, try to be understanding and productive about all the perspectives that go into the next CC even if it is to be rescheduled.
post edited by pgmoney - 2012/02/26 10:16:46
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zodac
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Re:Chimp Challenge 2012
2012/02/26 10:53:54
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Punchy
Okay, I'm just going to throw out another idea. I think it's pretty clear that there is no way to create a handicap system of any sort that is fair to all sizes and shapes of teams. Why not acknowledge that and put some degree of randomness into the outcome? Sort of like the points lotto mentioned earlier, but not totally random, so teams can influence the outcome to some degree.
There seem to be a number of "categories" tossed about: Total Points (note: directly benefits Stanford) Total WU (note: directly benefits Stanford) Production Increase - Handicap System (note: less directly benefits Stanford, depending on team size) Conversion Percent (note: no benefit to Stanford)
What if we award "tickets" in each category at the end (so if there are 10 teams, the top total points team gets 10 "tickets", the bottom one gets 1 "ticket", top WU team gets 10 tickets, etc etc). Then all the "tickets" are tossed in a hat and the winner and runner-up are drawn. So, you can influence the outcome by placing as high as possible in each category to get the most "tickets" in the lottery, but you're still not guaranteed the Jaded Monkey.
This randomness somewhat alleviates the fact that no matter what formula you come up with, it will be biased towards certain teams, partially due to unknowns that may not even be apparent until after the contest begins and so can never be fairly compensated for.
I have one big misgiving about the lottery part of the idea: What happens if a team gets only 1 or 2 tickets, and wins, while teams with 20 or 30 do not. Yes, I realise that it's a lottery, so there is randomness, but how would you convince people to Fold for future CCs? If you can have 8 teams going 110%, but a team which hardly bothers wins, where is the incentive? But I do like the idea of different sections. Rather than getting a formula which combines all those factors, perhaps scoring for each team based on rank in each category instead, and then adding them together? Something akin to the (old) F1 points system, where 1st - 10pts, 2nd - 8pts, etc for 3 or 4 categories? pgmoney
zodac
If we agree that I'm right, we can stop and go relax instead. ^_^
see this one post says all there is to know about your objective here, and I agre with punchy it can't be run with HPCS.
Way to not understand a joke pg.
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Re:Chimp Challenge 2012
2012/02/26 11:14:19
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My thoughts on how the top two places should have placed last year... OCN 1st EVGA a danger close 2nd... One more day of production and I think we would have won based on my thoughts... OK.......... Why not just simplify it... The entire idea as I understand it is to attract new members/producers and complete more WU's. So with only that in mind please please please consider my thoughts and do not just brush them off because they are not your own. Truly think them through... Have two winners and no fancy handicaps... One winner that is measured purely off of gains... Meaning... Take the last 60-90 day avg's of all participating teams (Individually BTW) and call that the benchmark for each team (Again individually measuring their own data to set their own benchmark). Or Ground zero. Then the pure points gained AND WU's completed are the points. Most points wins... Example... Say these are the Daily Benchmarks (And totally bogus numbers to make the math easy to understand) EVGA... 20,000,000/20,000 (Points/WU's) [H]... 25,000,000/25,000 OCN... 22,000,000/22,000 That is the benchmark for each team. Now... The contest begins... Snapshot of any day... These are the amount of points OVER the benchmark. So if a team does less, they got no points. But no loss of points either... Also.. This means if a team only does 1,000,000/1000 a day based of the avg calculation period we decide on, and now is doing 2,000,000/2000 a day during the contest they are getting 1,001,000 points a day!!!! EVGA... 3,000,000/3000 = 3,003,000 points [H]... 2,700,000/2900 = 2,702,900 points OCN... 3,000,000/3001 = 3,003,001 Points. = OCN as the "2012 Chimp Challenge Grand Champion" The other be a random drawing. So all the teams are in a bucket (Use the online random drawing tool) and they are called the "2012 Chimp Challenge Participant Champion" Or just do my first suggestion all by itself and cal it a day. My point is all about gains. New folks... New production. Why base it off of a silly handicap. Allow any participant to be a Champion, and let the team who grows the most have smack talk for a year. Gold old fashioned butt whipping in your face all out ROAR...
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Re:Chimp Challenge 2012
2012/02/26 11:29:53
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BTW... I am willing to bet that if anyone had the data from last year and tallied this up... That the finished order would be different than it was and one of the small teams would have been in the running... Anyone got the data? I am happy to run it...
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zodac
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Re:Chimp Challenge 2012
2012/02/26 12:25:39
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Afterburner
BTW... I am willing to bet that if anyone had the data from last year and tallied this up... That the finished order would be different than it was and one of the small teams would have been in the running... Anyone got the data? I am happy to run it...
Which numbers are you looking for? I've got the points produced by each team during last year's CC, but nothing on WU count.
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Re:Chimp Challenge 2012
2012/02/26 14:02:11
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zodac Afterburner BTW... I am willing to bet that if anyone had the data from last year and tallied this up... That the finished order would be different than it was and one of the small teams would have been in the running... Anyone got the data? I am happy to run it... Which numbers are you looking for? I've got the points produced by each team during last year's CC, but nothing on WU count. Sweet! Well to keep it simple... The total production numbers produced during the contest. And I see we can only go back to Feb 2011 for points by month per team... So if by chance you have all the teams (In CC) the 60 days before the contest that would be fantastic. I will do a quick spreadsheet...
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zodac
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Re:Chimp Challenge 2012
2012/02/26 15:59:48
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Ok, CC2011 points: Evga - 120,279,256 OCN - 107,318,736 TSC! - 45,662,987 OCF - 42,670,316 CPC - 43,947,959 HWC - 40,660,364 TPU - 27,266,335 MPC - 28,575,342 OCAU - 15,149,103 As for past points: Team - April - March Evga - 550,084,180 - 602,676,084 OCN - 285,712,326 - 274,695,940 TSC! - 203,522,809 - 178,806,061 OCF - 176,871,469 - 176,953,961 CPC - 291,049,547 - 192,995,316 HWC - 63,991,724 - 36,750,882 TPU - 40,563,382 - 46,418,951 MPC - 149,572,593 - 154,315,613 OCAU - 78,284,040 - 66,744,851 Hope that comes in handy for you. ;)
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Xavier Zepherious
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Re:Chimp Challenge 2012
2012/02/26 16:23:52
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considering only 5 teams have checked in the CC forum - out of 9 it would be quite unfair to have things decided without their input and ideas (sort of what happened to us) so if it takes longer and we have to move the CC Im all for it in fact Im in favor of NO CHIMP prize - just fold during the CC because it's the right thing to do no points chasing other than trying to meet a excess target the teams figure we should be trying to meet like the combined total of all the team > must be this value Z in a fixed amount of days and Z is based on growing teams X% and improvement in hardware Y% and getting the teams out everyone gets the badge if we surpass the target The purpose of the CC is to challenge all the teams to increase production thru growth of people and hardware, and foster good sportsmanship and bring public awareness to the program. what a better way then to work together for that goal
post edited by Xavier Zepherious - 2012/02/26 16:31:53
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Re:Chimp Challenge 2012
2012/02/26 18:41:41
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Thanks zodiac.... how many days did CC run last year? And does anyone have record of how the teams placed in 2011?
post edited by Afterburner - 2012/02/26 19:06:44
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troy8d
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Re:Chimp Challenge 2012
2012/02/26 20:37:35
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Afterburner Thanks zodiac.... how many days did CC run last year? And does anyone have record of how the teams placed in 2011? I have numbers for the past 2 years.
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Re:Chimp Challenge 2012
2012/02/26 20:59:18
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☄ Helpful
ok... I hope this is not to far over anyone's head. But I think by doing this exercise I found a GREAT idea without any handicaps or fancy stressful figuring!! The original idea did flip flop who won and how we placed. But during this exercise I found a simple solution. We give each team a placement for their score that day. Two of them. One for Points earned above the Benchmark (That can be decided what amount of days to calculate do to recent changes and such). And the other the amount of WU's they produce over the WU Benchmark for each said team. An example is attached, and what I am proposing is under the black line on the attachment. But all the data is above that black line for those who like to see that. Keep in mind I just grabbed numbers for the WU's in the example because I do not have any of the daily data to create a perfect example. That said the point here is to get more folders right! Well look at this. Not a single Handicap and the team that place 5th (OCAU) last year pulled up to 3rd!!! And yes EVGA got 2nd... But remember I just tossed numbers in the WU's OK... So in the example... - 1st place earns "One" point. So if there was a 9th placing team (No ties)... It would be 9 points for that team.
- Each category (PPD & WU) has a daily placement. So the best a team could do is collect two points. The worst, 18.
- These are added together daily. At the end of the contest the team with the least amount of points WINS!
http://img521.imageshack....647/cc2012proposal.jpg Bottom line here... Teams like EVGA that do not have similar numbers during the CC will need to step up their game and recruit! It is all about producing more than the Benchmarks daily. TO place as high as possible. But it is fair!!! No handicaps. Pure, show up and compete or go home with the chance to win next year. I mean look at how drastically different the placements are and how fun would it be for those two teams HWC and OCAU to almost beat out EVGA in this example? Granted WU's are funny numbers but I had no idea how it would look when I did it. It is 100% pure luck it worked out that way. My point is this could be FUN again! One more thing... This also helps those who Fold the smaller units during this contest. So even the little guy is becoming a HUGE help to the team. Not just the heavy hitters with points. So we can see teams go at this two ways... Some teams can bang out the points. Others can bang out the WU's... This could be really exciting!!
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bobc36
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Re:Chimp Challenge 2012
2012/02/27 07:39:58
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I still dont understand why we dont so something such as have a 25% growth factor and use last year's total points as a baseline. Whichever team hits their projected points production number first, wins. We use last year's total point production as a baseline value, and just project it to the future. Whenever one team hits their "winning value", that is time-stamped, and the production of everyone else is recorded as well for next year's competition. This is quick, simple, and understandable to the general populous. It doesnt require a PhD in statistics to figure out. Total Points Production 2011 Projected Points Production 2012 2012=2011*1.25 Evga - 120,279,256 Evga - 150,349,070 OCN - 107,318,736 OCN - 134,148,420 TSC! - 45,662,987 TSC! - 57,078,734 OCF - 42,670,316 OCF - 53,337,895 CPC - 43,947,959 CPC - 54,934,949 HWC - 40,660,364 HWC - 50,825,455 TPU - 27,266,335 TPU - 34,082,919 MPC - 28,575,342 MPC - 35,719,178 OCAU - 15,149,103 OCAU - 18,936,379 This gives each team a fair shot at winning because there are no handicaps or conversion factors, or anything calculated off of 6 month's previous production. If one team builds 50 4-p systems, then more WUs are being done. This increase can be offset by finding more people to fold. This promotes getting more hardware, people folding, More WUs being completed, just to keep up with the other teams. In the end, Stanford wins because More folding is accomplished. As always, this is not perfect, but discussion is greatly appreciated.
post edited by bobc36 - 2012/02/27 07:41:19
<--- See those Folding numbers? Ask me about how you can get them too! Rigs: 2P E5-2650 Xeon
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Re:Chimp Challenge 2012
2012/02/27 07:44:43
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Very nice idea...^^^ Only issue... Two of the teams have twice the production this year than than did last year as an entire team... Same as my suggestion above hurts the bigger teams in the points race as it is benchmarking off the team AVG... BUT! They can counter that with WU's... Really like these ideas being tossed around...
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bobc36
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Re:Chimp Challenge 2012
2012/02/27 07:52:30
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Afterburner Very nice idea...^^^ Only issue... Two of the teams have twice the production this year than than did last year as an entire team... Well, then we need to figure out how we can increase our production by the same amount, or else we would lose. the ultimate goal is to fold more WUs, if you look at it that way, then they are doing it better than we are.
post edited by bobc36 - 2012/02/27 07:54:42
<--- See those Folding numbers? Ask me about how you can get them too! Rigs: 2P E5-2650 Xeon
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Re:Chimp Challenge 2012
2012/02/27 07:55:29
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bobc36 Afterburner Very nice idea...^^^ Only issue... Two of the teams have twice the production this year than than did last year as an entire team... Well, then we need to figure out how we can increase our production by the same amount, or else we would lose. the ultimate goal is to fold more WUs, if you look at it that way, then they are doing it better than we are. Agreed! That is one of the cons to a big team. It takes a lot of effort to turn/gain speed for an Aircraft Carrier than it does a Frigate...
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bobc36
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Re:Chimp Challenge 2012
2012/02/27 08:05:30
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Well, we've got how many months until this competition starts? time to send the order to the engine room Plus, we need to get some positive wind in our sails to get rid of all the negativity recently
post edited by bobc36 - 2012/02/27 08:08:44
<--- See those Folding numbers? Ask me about how you can get them too! Rigs: 2P E5-2650 Xeon
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Punchy
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Re:Chimp Challenge 2012
2012/02/27 09:22:04
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I hate to say this, but whether you call it a baseline or a benchmark, it's still just a handicap in a different form. AB's idea is kind of neat - it's like my ticket scheme in reverse, without the randomness at the end - but the cynical side of me says that if you do these calculations on a daily basis, teams WILL time their points and WUs to drop on certain days. One other issue with WU calculations in general is that it's possible to misconfigure a client to generate tons of bad WUs; again I wouldn't put it past someone to do so because the CC has become so much about winning for winning's sake.
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Re:Chimp Challenge 2012
2012/02/27 10:11:56
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Good points. I have a few others... Kind of like the idea of finding a "Fun" solution to make it fun again. Not about winning. And boy do I agree with getting wind in our sales. I have had a few conversations in the background with folks @ EVGA. And they are open to ideas that "Promote" teamwork and growth of the folding program as a whole. And for Punchy... I understand the handicap thought. But my thinking. It is not one. Why? Because it is up to us to make it happen. Just like the other big teams. They will have to work at it as well. And we are not being asked to drag race a mule vs a Corvette like we had been "TOLD" to do last year... I am really happy as a person to see so many great ideas. I will also be honest and say I worry many of these ideas may not be even considered and they should be. It is all about everyone having a real shot at competing. NOT WINNING. And many of the proposals over the past few years have been made for one team to either win or be dang close, and another to not even have a chance to compete. THAT is why there is so much animosity. Not that we lost, but that we had no chance to even be competitive. My thoughts on my proposal... It forces the big teams to do exactly what CC is about. GROW by gaining new folders and getting some past members back!!!!!!... And the little guys have a chance to compete in more ways than one. That is a huge win right there. Now lets just say this was the plan... I bet the attitudes of every site would adjust and start fires everywhere to gain new folders and production. And let's be honest. Any plan we make is run with the honor system. And many teams have had a few members caught not doing the right thing.My hopes is we find a plan that gives everyone the chance to compete. Not win... The winning is for the Cause and those we help.... We want to add "New" or "Past and no currently folding" members back in the fold. Last thought on this. I am telling everyone right now. We need to own this CC in a positive fashion and go all in. Not to win, but to compete. If we win, so be it. But if we are looking at another plan that places us in yet another "Also played but could not compete" because of some silly plan like the last two years........ Enough said...
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Re:Chimp Challenge 2012
2012/02/27 11:39:30
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BTW... I have received a few comments on my post above (All good BTW) and feel a little clarity is needed... Having a contest with a winner is always a good thing. My comment on not it being about winning was and is more about there being a competitiveness, not getting rid of winning. Having any team (Like a few years ago with the smaller teams) not having a chance to win kind of defeats the whole idea of a winner. However, by focusing on a way for everyone to have a competitive go at it seems to me to be a better path to take than looking for ways to keep any team(s) from winning. No plan will ever be full proof. However, even with me saying that... The focus for any of these plans must be... - Attracting new producers
- Bringing back previous producers
- Completing more WU's (This does not mean one or two or three small teams jumping onto another team). I mean pure new fresh produced WU's producers!
- Creating awareness in a positive fashion (For example.. I knew of F@H but did not get involved until the CC many years ago. The recruiting made me feel the need to help and I have ever since. Not sure about you, but 34 million is not to shabby and is a lot better than ZERO!)
- Competitive for all participants. Otherwise the idea of this even continuing needs to be evaluated.
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Xavier Zepherious
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Re:Chimp Challenge 2012
2012/02/27 13:17:54
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did anyone look at my latest submission no race join everyone's point output together have a goal of surpassing combined team peak point output by 20 or 30% (for two week) - ie 14 x peak PPD of all teams combined x 1.3(for 30% increase) x conversion factor (what percent will change to chimp names) you can still track regular info...so teams can see team output and rally troops to fold (and improve their own numbers) a goal line like a for a charity .every team puts in and see if we can meet it (it should be out of our reach and the goal will be to stretch each teams abilities as the goal) this forces teams that barely change during CC to radically change they way they do things - either ramp up or get new members and the other teams will have to ramp up extra just incase the other teams(that historically barely increase team output) don't make up the shortfall if we meet the goal we all get the badge if we don't we have to wait till next year and try again this would strengthen team spirit it would also foster good dialogue amongst the teams, as well as working with other teams to improve output (and would end cheating) because why would we drop wu's intentionally - since there is no winners here unless stanford gets usable data the winner is suppose to be all mankind by finding cures and science look even if no one likes it - it is a novel idea just thinking outside the box
post edited by Xavier Zepherious - 2012/02/27 13:21:18
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