devdog51
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Re:Chimp Challenge 2012
2012/04/19 11:04:47
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Well if they say that it can work if we drop conversion and use stamina instead, then let's drop the chimp names. Its what the team wants so Im here to represent that. Good job guys, in figuring this out.
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Re:Chimp Challenge 2012
2012/04/19 11:13:50
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Xavier Zepherious
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Re:Chimp Challenge 2012
2012/04/19 11:22:43
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zodac I think a few teams have given their answers. HWC and OCN are for keeping the CC names, OCF are against, Evga are 66% against and OCAU are 50/50. Still no replies from TSC, TPU or CPC&B. So it's not really clear-cut enough for us to make a majority decision. :/ you can get hold of TSC directly thru Bosun I can post what you want overs at TSC just send me a PM (contents to send) and I'll post it there I can also post at CPC&B and TPU if someone hasn't already bit-tech will have a delay post (has to go thru modration)
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devdog51
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Re:Chimp Challenge 2012
2012/04/19 11:24:12
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Lol @ Afterburner. Alright Gryphon, or anyone else can you work up the formula and put it into one post? Everyone at the captain's formula is demanding to see it. I asked for a vote on the date.
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devdog51
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Re:Chimp Challenge 2012
2012/04/19 11:44:12
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Xavier Zepherious zodac I think a few teams have given their answers. HWC and OCN are for keeping the CC names, OCF are against, Evga are 66% against and OCAU are 50/50. Still no replies from TSC, TPU or CPC&B. So it's not really clear-cut enough for us to make a majority decision. :/ you can get hold of TSC directly thru Bosun I can post what you want overs at TSC just send me a PM (contents to send) and I'll post it there I can also post at CPC&B and TPU if someone hasn't already bit-tech will have a delay post (has to go thru modration) Apparently adak went to TPU and TSC a while back. He says theyre 100% against changing names
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devdog51
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Re:Chimp Challenge 2012
2012/04/19 11:45:26
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Alright I have to leave for work, Ill back tonight to look things over and see how much progress has been made in the captains forum.
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Re:Chimp Challenge 2012
2012/04/19 11:46:56
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devdog51 Lol @ Afterburner. Alright Gryphon, or anyone else can you work up the formula and put it into one post? Everyone at the captain's formula is demanding to see it. I asked for a vote on the date. I'm super busy at work right now, but I'll do that by tonight. I know it's dispersed all over in a number of posts now, so till then you can refer them to mainly posts #502 and #632. Just to clarify, you need both the updated CCC formula and the Stamina formula together, right? Is that what's being voted on now? I'm going to run a scenario for "what if there were no CC names in 2011" but the "Growth" will be inaccurate because all I have for 2010 is CC name PPD's (so it's going to calculate CC-name growth for now, but it will correctly calculate the total team growth if CC-names are dropped in CC 2012).
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Xavier Zepherious
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Re:Chimp Challenge 2012
2012/04/19 12:02:15
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well I was just over at TPU and nothing of the sort has occured 1) they still don't know the formula being used 2) they are still undetermined on CC names and as for TSC - they have nothing posted either - so how would they know? like I said just get it into 1 post and I'll post it myself to those forums If the masses don't get the info how can one decide?
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bobc36
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Re:Chimp Challenge 2012
2012/04/19 12:57:19
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Bosun made a post in this thread a week or so ago. I believe he said that TSC would go with the majority.
<--- See those Folding numbers? Ask me about how you can get them too! Rigs: 2P E5-2650 Xeon
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texinga
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Re:Chimp Challenge 2012
2012/04/19 14:19:25
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Catch-22 meets CC 2012... Doc: We can't decide upon a formula because people haven't agreed upon whether to keep the Chimp Names. Yossarian: OK, let's get rid of the Chimp names and then we can decide right? Doc: Wrong. If people decided upon the Chimp names, then we can't have a formula because the formula is now ineffective. Yossarian: OK, so let's get rid of the formula. Doc: Nope. If we get rid of the formula, we don't have any place to account for the Chimp Names. ...and on and on it goes.
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Re:Chimp Challenge 2012
2012/04/19 14:31:56
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I have made a final cosmetic change in the way I calculate the scores, only so that it's easier to interpret. Below is the whole account of how to calculate a single score from a number of different categories (no matter what they are). Please refer anyone here to read on this. I will make another post on each of the performance measures (categories).
CCC - Categorized Chimp Challenge All teams compete in a number of categories (performance measures). Lets assume there are three categories and let's call them CAT1, CAT2 and CAT3. At the end of the competition, each team gets their scores in all categories, and the team with the best overall performance is crowned "King of the Chimps" and receives this year's jaded monkey. I will now explain how to come up with that "overall performance". Let's work on a 4-Team example: CAT1 CAT2 CAT3 Team A: 140 Team A: 50 Team A: 30 Team B: 60 Team B: 70 Team B: 60 Team C: 100 Team C: 90 Team C: 10 Team D: 80 Team D: 80 Team D: 40
At this point, the scale of scores in each category is completely different, and this poses a serious concern when you want to put them together in a single score by adding them. For example, in CAT1, Team A has an 80 point advantage over Team B and this spread is impossible to close whatever no matter how well Team B does in other categories. To remedy this, we will bring all categories to the same scale from 0 (zero) to 100, such that the best team in each category will receive a 100, and the worst team will receive a zero. This way, no single category will have a dominance in the overall score and the categories will be completely balanced. To this end, first, calculate the "range" within each category by subtracting the minimum score from the maximum. CAT1 CAT2 CAT3 Range 80 40 50 Let's call these ranges, RANGE1, RANGE2 and RANGE3. Then, multiply the scores in CAT1 by 100/RANGE1, scores in CAT2 by 100/RANGE2, and scores in CAT3 by 100/RANGE3. This is what you get: CAT1 CAT2 CAT3 Team A: 175 Team A: 125 Team A: 60 Team B: 75 Team B: 175 Team B: 120 Team C: 125 Team C: 225 Team C: 20 Team D: 100 Team D: 200 Team D: 80 Observe now that the ranges in all categories are equal to 100; exactly what we wanted. At this point, the goal is actually achieved (categories are equally balanced); however, for neatness and ease of interpretation, we'll bring all categories to a score between 100 and zero. This is very easy, because all you need to do is to subtract the minimum score in each category from all scores in that category. So, this is what you get: CAT1 CAT2 CAT3 Team A: 100 Team A: 0 Team A: 40 Team B: 0 Team B: 50 Team B: 100 Team C: 50 Team C: 100 Team C: 0 Team D: 25 Team D: 75 Team D: 60 The scores can easily be interpreted as "given the best team is 100, and worst team is 0, how well Team X did in this category". A score of 50, for example means that that team did exactly halfway between the best and the worst teams. As a final step, all you have to do is sum up the scores for each team: FINAL SCORES Team A: 140 Team B: 150 Team C: 150 Team D: 160 Team D wins. To summarize, what this system does is adjusting the category scores such that each category is between zero and 100. Let's call this adjusted categories ACAT1, ACAT2, and ACAT3. For a shorthand notation, I will use ACATi, CATi and RANGEi for category i, and ACATij, CATij for Team j's scores in category i. Finally, let's call Team j's final score, SCOREj. The formula can be written as: SCOREj = ACAT1j + ACAT2j + ACAT3j where ACATij = CATij x 100 / RANGEi
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Re:Chimp Challenge 2012
2012/04/19 14:33:11
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NOTE: Depending on whether CC names are kept or not, the following measures will refer to either "CC NAME" or "TOTAL TEAM". "Points" Category For each team, this category lists the total FAH points during the CC (please read the note above). No rounding up or down is performed. For Team j, let's call this POINTSj. "Growth" Category For each team, "Growth" is a percent change in a team's FAH points during CC as compared to that team's previous year FAH points during CC (please read the note above). Let's call Team j's last year FAH points, PLASTj GROWTHj = 100 x (POINTSj - PLASTj) / PLASTj "Stamina" Category This measure captures how well a team can hold up during the CC. Here is how: First, for each team, daily FAH points are recorded during the competition (please read the note above). Let's denote Team j's production on day k as POINTjk. After day 3, the average of the first 3 days are calculated and it is used as a projection of what the 4th day's production should be (as a forecast). For Team j, let's denote the forecast for day k as FCASTjk. Then, we have this formula, which is used for all teams: FCASTj4 = (POINTj1 + POINTj2 + POINTj3) / 3 in general, FCASTjk = (POINTj[k-3] + POINTj[k-2] + POINTj[k-1]) / 3 Then, on day 4, Team j produces POINTj4. What we expected to see was FCASTj4, but the actual production was POINTj4. We want to see how well Team j did relative to what we expected; let's call this relative production of Team j on day k as RELPjk. The formula is; RELPjk = POINTjk / FCASTjk The thing is, (POINTjk / FCASTjk) can be larger than 1 (one), but we're not interested in the values that are larger than 1, because we do not want the Stamina measure to reflect how fast a team can accelerate, but rather how well a team can hold up production without dropping it. Therefore, we adjust the formula as follows: RELPjk = min{1, POINTjk / FCASTjk} This way, if (POINTjk / FCASTjk) is larger than 1, RELPjk will return only 1; if it is smaller than 1, then it will return whatever that value is. Effectively, RELPjk is now issuing a penalty if the team did worse than forecasted, but it's not giving a reward for doing better than forecasted. The best RELPjk that can be had by any team is 1. In this fashion, by the end of day 10, we would have calculated RELPj4 through RELPj10 for each Team j. That means, for each Team j, we have 7 (seven) RELPjk values that are between 0 and 1. The best way to put those values together into a single measure is using a geometric mean (This is exactly the same way you would calculate compound interest.). The calculated geometric mean will be between zero and 1, because each of the RELPjk values are between 0 and 1. For neatness of presentation, I multiply it by 100, to bring it to a scale between 0 and 100. This is basically a summary percentage measure for "how well did the team do in terms of not dropping the ball in the whole course of the competition". Let's call this measure STAMINAj for Team j: STAMINAj = 100 x GEOMEAN(RELPj4, RELPj5, RELPj6, RELPj7, RELPj7, RELPj8, RELPj9, RELPj10) STAMINAj will be 100 for a team that never dropped the ball during the competition; for any drop STAMINAj will be less than 100. "How far less" will depend on the extent and frequency of drops. The following table lists RELPjk values for each team in CC2011, as well as the STAMINAj scores. As you see, only one team managed to get 100. Please compare the results to the "points per update" graph shown here: http://www.hardwarecanucks.com/chimp_challenge/2011/
post edited by theGryphon - 2012/04/19 22:36:24
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zodac
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Re:Chimp Challenge 2012
2012/04/19 15:51:36
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For the Stamina category Raw scores: TPU - 100.0 HWC - 99.1 Evga - 92.6 OCN - 89.9 Range = 10.1, normalised scores = (raw score*100)/Range Normalised scores TPU = 990.1 HWC = 981.2 Evga = 916.8 OCN = 890.1 Final scores TPU = 100 HWC = 91.1 Evga = 26.7 OCN = 0 The difference for TPU and HWC wasn't even 1% in the category, and yet they get almost 10% less points. Is there a way to reign that in somehow? I can understand the normalisation for the scores when they can be in widely varying ranges, but when they're all bunched together, there's a big difference for a small performance gap. Just a comment on that category - I'm happy to use this format as is this year if the captains agree to use it; it's the most promising system that's been proposed so far, and if we find any flaws in this year's event, hopefully we'll get together a bit sooner than late next March to discuss it. :P
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Punchy
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Re:Chimp Challenge 2012
2012/04/19 15:52:42
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Thanks Gryphon, I was hoping you would change it to normalize each category to 100 and remove the DC offset. In fact, I have a spreadsheet sitting here with the same formula, but my internet connection has been down for the last 6 hours Now that you have exposed the fact that the lowest team in each category gets a 0 (which effectively was happening before but was hidden), I suspect there may be some debate about normalizing to the range rather than to the max. What is implemented now is equivalent to taking all the test scores from a class, which might range from 50 to 100, and normalizing them so the folks that got 50% right get a 0 for their grade. Edit: zodac said the same thing
post edited by Punchy - 2012/04/19 16:10:06
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troy8d
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Re:Chimp Challenge 2012
2012/04/19 17:44:55
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Just a few thoughts, take them for what they are worth: In trading conversion or stamina you are trading a real, measurable metric for something essentially meaningless and difficult to measure in a meaningful way. You can come up with all the assumptions and statistical tricks you want, that still isn't going to make it meaningful. More importantly, removing the chimps from the chimp challenge makes the contest ordinary and boring. You do this because you take adak at his word when few teams appear to be actually involved in the process and several teams have said "we're up for whatever." Now the schict for the contest is essentially: don't really do anything you aren't already doing except pay closer to the stats than usual. This does not get me excited in the least. Also, with that proposed format we are going to win this year in a runaway. The contest will suffer for it and I am sure there will be accusations that we rigged the contest. To which I say Don't miss the forest for the trees...

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Re:Chimp Challenge 2012
2012/04/19 21:10:45
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troy8d Just a few thoughts, take them for what they are worth: In trading conversion or stamina you are trading a real, measurable metric for something essentially meaningless and difficult to measure in a meaningful way. You can come up with all the assumptions and statistical tricks you want, that still isn't going to make it meaningful. More importantly, removing the chimps from the chimp challenge makes the contest ordinary and boring. You do this because you take adak at his word when few teams appear to be actually involved in the process and several teams have said "we're up for whatever." Now the schict for the contest is essentially: don't really do anything you aren't already doing except pay closer to the stats than usual. This does not get me excited in the least. Also, with that proposed format we are going to win this year in a runaway. The contest will suffer for it and I am sure there will be accusations that we rigged the contest. To which I say Don't miss the forest for the trees... Troy, I don't know if you're talking to me, or what part of your post is referring to me. If you are talking to me, you should first know that I'm not suggesting anything regarding CC name removal or not. Stamina can be used as a replacement of Conversion, or along with it. Regarding Stamina, I don't know what you're thinking, 1) that what it's trying to capture is meaningless, or 2) that it's not able to capture it? I won't argue with the first one; if you and/or anybody think that "the ability for a team to hold it up during the whole competition" is meaningless, there's nothing I can say to that. For me, it is very meaningful. About the second one, you'd be wrong if you claim it's not capturing it, because it is. What I'm doing is not something I invented (or pulled out of my butt); moving average is a classical way of smoothing things out (so that single observations do not affect the outcome significantly), and it is used very widely in time-series analysis, which is what's necessary to capture the dynamics of daily production during the course of the competition. I have to say I'm not liking the way you're saying "coming up with tricks". There are no tricks, and I'm genuinely working to develop a fair system. If you think any team is going to run away with this system, you'd be so wrong that you'll laugh at yourself when it's over. First thing you're missing, the system I posted above (#671) does not say what categories should be used, or whether CC names should be dropped or not. It does not care what those categories are, and regardless it puts them together in a perfect balance. For the record, I also came to believe that CC names should stay. I wasn't thinking like this sometime ago, but the more I thought about it, CC names really make this competition very unique. But, as I said before, I will implement whatever the teams agree on.
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Re:Chimp Challenge 2012
2012/04/19 21:28:16
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zodac The difference for TPU and HWC wasn't even 1% in the category, and yet they get almost 10% less points. Is there a way to reign that in somehow? I can understand the normalisation for the scores when they can be in widely varying ranges, but when they're all bunched together, there's a big difference for a small performance gap. Just a comment on that category - I'm happy to use this format as is this year if the captains agree to use it; it's the most promising system that's been proposed so far, and if we find any flaws in this year's event, hopefully we'll get together a bit sooner than late next March to discuss it. :P zodac, the purpose is to bring the different categories to an equal scale so that when you add them up it is actually adding apples to apples. Say in Stamina, the difference between TPU and HWC was 1, but in Points the difference is 10,000,000. I can hear you saying 'why not convert the Points to number of millions?' but that would be an arbitrary unit conversion, which still does not guarantee that two categories equally affect the final score. What I'm doing by bringing all categories to the same scale of zero to 100, exactly brings all categories to the same level. One thing you (all participants) should realize is that once the category scores are adjusted, they are on a different scale and they're not comparable to their original values. It's like converting Fahrenheit temperature to Celsius. 212 F is equal to 100 C, right? Consider a typical room temperature, say 68 F, which is equal to 20 C. Question: how many degrees is there between a boiling water and a typical room? The answer is 144 in F, but 80 in C. I hope I'm making things clear.
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devdog51
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Re:Chimp Challenge 2012
2012/04/19 22:21:08
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Wow great progress since I was gone. Thanks Gryphon, i owe you and troy a lot for all the work you did on this. And btw, why have my badges gone screwy?
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Re:Chimp Challenge 2012
2012/04/19 22:24:22
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Post #672 is updated with details on Stamina. All the information there is is now on posts #671 and #672, please refer anyone to those posts. I'll be happy to answer questions or clarify things when I can. By the way, I'll be traveling in a few hours and I won't have internet connection probably till late night ET.
post edited by theGryphon - 2012/04/19 22:33:12
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devdog51
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Re:Chimp Challenge 2012
2012/04/19 22:36:30
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theGryphon Post #672 is updated with details on Stamina. All the information there is is now on posts #671 and #672, please refer anyone to those posts. I'll be happy to answer questions or clarify things when I can. By the way, I'll be traveling in a few hours and I won't have internet connection probably till late night ET. thanks I have it posted in the captain's forum and Adak is looking at it now.
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devdog51
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Re:Chimp Challenge 2012
2012/04/19 22:52:25
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Gryhon, apparently youre not allowed to not fold in the CC. adak Sit it out? B****! Tell him I like it, and he's folding! <smile> Well done. Also, Adak agrees to the system with one request: adak I really like the stats post you made, three posts up from this one! I would vote for that in an instant. I'd like to make ONE SMALL SUGGESTION, and it's strictly cosmetic. I'd like to see the lowest possible score 100, instead of a zero. For a team to see a goose egg for their racing efforts, is a cold slap in the face, I'd like to avoid. I know, it's strictly a feel good measure, but a goose egg is a bit tough to face. Could the range be from 10 to 110 perhaps? Tell your stats guys, good job! He even complimented you guys, lol.
post edited by devdog51 - 2012/04/19 23:00:56
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csm725OCN
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Re:Chimp Challenge 2012
2012/04/19 23:16:28
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I personally think the range should be 50-100 because 100 points less is quite a lot for a change that is minuscule in reality (no more than 15 percent points)... Or am I not comprehending this correctly? Edit, @devdog, your badge isn't working since EOC is down.
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devdog51
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Re:Chimp Challenge 2012
2012/04/19 23:28:22
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csm725OCN I personally think the range should be 50-100 because 100 points less is quite a lot for a change that is minuscule in reality (no more than 15 percent points)... Or am I not comprehending this correctly? Edit, @devdog, your badge isn't working since EOC is down. That would explain it then. Ive been crunching so I haven't looked at my EOC for a while. And apparently WCG is done right now too. It could probably be changed to that but would require a change to the formula that converts the numbers. I assume it would be fairly easy. I would have to through the formula again. But a shift like what Adak is asking for wouldn't necessarily change anything. Its just assigning a different "name" if you will to the place that holds the value. As long as there are 100 parts you can specify any set of numbers you want and the system stays the same. Is this correct Gryphon? I think Im understanding this, but feel free to slap me if Im wrong.
post edited by devdog51 - 2012/04/19 23:30:54
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devdog51
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Re:Chimp Challenge 2012
2012/04/19 23:53:30
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theGryphon I'm going to run a scenario for "what if there were no CC names in 2011" but the "Growth" will be inaccurate because all I have for 2010 is CC name PPD's (so it's going to calculate CC-name growth for now, but it will correctly calculate the total team growth if CC-names are dropped in CC 2012). adak Ask him about using the 2011 CC production percentages that Zodac posted in EVGA's thread (in her spreadsheet), for an approximation of the 2010 numbers. It will take until the following year to get better data, but if a team is being calculated based on their own production numbers (even if it's the wrong year as a substitute), I don't see any intrinsic bias in that. It's a one-time inaccuracy, but it's far from being a cheat of any kind. Adak is curious about the numbers you need for the growth calculations.
post edited by devdog51 - 2012/04/20 00:41:34
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Re:Chimp Challenge 2012
2012/04/20 01:34:18
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The shift adak is suggesting may help psychologically but it wouldn't affect the outcome. Any scale and any lower limits are possible but a range from 0 to 100 is very nice from a pure mathematical pov.
CSM, please pay attention that the adjusted (scaled) scores are not comparable to original ones and the meaning of the adjusted scores is totally different. They're now relative scores with respect to the max and min in that category. And, again, we're doing this because this is the only way to make sure the categories have the same affect on the final score.
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blkhole
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Re:Chimp Challenge 2012
2012/04/20 01:54:52
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Nice work guys; I'm confident that if this doesn't give us true equilibrium for the CC at least it will work decently to navigate wormholes, or at minimum crack the riddles of life and make a perfectly crisped slice of toast! Seriously though, you guys have made insane leaps and bounds in the past few days; I have to spend about twice as long as you guys to make sense of it, but I do see the logic behind it and it's looking closer than ever to being properly calibrated... Good job to all of you, and I'm stoked to see that it's a true collaborative effort w/ multiple teams actively involved! We're gonna have a good CC this year!
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zodac
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Re:Chimp Challenge 2012
2012/04/20 04:03:44
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Ok, but here're some numbers I put together. Using current stats from EOC: The % difference between CPC and OCAU in raw stats is 3.5%, and % diff in final stats is 4.4%. However, in the Stamina category, a difference of 1% gave a final stats % different of almost 10%. That's what might need to be looked at - there seems to be a lot more "spreading" of the points in the Stamina category, since the scores are so bunched up.
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zodac
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Re:Chimp Challenge 2012
2012/04/20 04:03:45
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Ok, but here're some numbers I put together. Using current stats from EOC: The % difference between CPC and OCAU in raw stats is 3.5%, and % diff in final stats is 4.4%. However, in the Stamina category, a difference of 1% gave a final stats % different of almost 10%. That's what might need to be looked at - there seems to be a lot more "spreading" of the points in the Stamina category, since the scores are so bunched up.
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texinga
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Re:Chimp Challenge 2012
2012/04/20 04:36:33
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To Gryphon: Just wanted to say that you have and are still doing an "outstanding job" for everyone in the Chimp Challenge! No matter if the formula is absolutely flawless or not, your work, interest and seemingly tireless ability to keep on plugging are incredible. I'm proud to be on the same Team with you buddy. You deserve so much more than a Blue Ribbon for your efforts, but I think all of us can agree that you have earned that and a lot more with your donation of time and skills. Great job!!  
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csm725OCN
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Re:Chimp Challenge 2012
2012/04/20 04:45:45
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The issue zodac is referring to is that points differences get "expanded". I suggested to remedy this by decreasing the range from 50 to 100, which effectively halves the point spread. I wasn't referring to the psychological aspect of getting a 0.
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